K. M. TRUEVTSEV
Candidate of Philosophical Sciences
Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Keywords: Libya, terrorist threat, political instability, radical Islamists, ethnic and tribal separatism, jihadism, illegal migration
Against the background of the war raging today in vast areas of the Middle East, events taking place on the African continent are being overshadowed by the attention of the world community. Meanwhile, reports coming from North Africa, the Sahel and sub-Saharan States indicate that the entire vast region is turning into a zone of growing terrorist danger and political instability, which risks becoming a zone of permanent regional conflict.
The echoes of these events are also directly felt in the Mediterranean region, primarily in the form of growing illegal migration to Europe from Africa, which is already the second most important source of mass displacement of people to the EU countries. The epicenter of all these threats is Libya. It is impossible to prevent their further spread without eliminating or at least stopping the Libyan hotbed.
At the same time, the task of applying international efforts to solve the Libyan problem is far from simple, and in a certain sense even more complex than the task of countering jihadist forces in Syria and Iraq. First of all, the point is that, unlike these two Middle Eastern states, there are practically no internal actors in Libya who would have a clear prospect of becoming a consolidating national force.
INTERNAL SITUATION
Libya today is a fully disintegrated State, whose internal fragmentation is extreme and multidimensional, even by modern Middle Eastern and African standards. Not only did the links between its historical regions - Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan-break down, but these territories also became fragmented into smaller fragments, many of which have neither a stable power nor a definite political structure.
The political poles for a long time were, on the one ha ...
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