1. Trends in the development of the global military and political situation,

2. The role of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in ensuring the country's military security.

The end of the cold war has raised high hopes for lasting peace and stability. However, the desire of individual countries for world leadership has cast doubt on the implementation of the prospects that have opened up. Moreover, the new alignment of military and political forces in the world, especially in Europe, has disrupted the former foundations of stability, changed the nature, scale and content of dangers and threats to our country.

The Russian Federation, which is an object of increased interest and certain territorial claims, has found itself at the center of radical geopolitical changes on the eve of the third millennium. Its transformation into a strong economic and military power capable of independently defending its national interests is not particularly welcome by a number of countries that remain committed to resolving political, economic, social, territorial, religious, national-ethnic, and other conflicts through the use of military force in violation of existing international law. This is one of the main sources of military danger for our country (Table I).

The concept of "military danger" is closely related to the concept of "military security".

Military security refers to the state of protection of society, the state, and its citizens from external and internal threats related to the use of military force or the threat of its use. Military security is an essential component of Russia's national security. It is determined by the country's political situation and its level of defense capabilities.

The most important directions and principles of the country's security policy are formulated in the National Security Concept, approved by Presidential Decree No. 1300 dated December 17, 1997. The Concept reflects the goals and state strategy for ensuring the security of individuals, society, and the state, taking into account the available resources and capabilities.

A prerequisite for correctly assessing Russia's security threats is the study and consideration of the current military and political situation (Table 2).

The new alignment of military and political forces in the world, and especially in Europe, has disrupted the previous foundations of stability and changed the nature, scale, and content of dangers and threats. They have transformed from global to regional and local, becoming more complex.

Terrorism, the drug trade, subversive activities by mafia structures, religious fanaticism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and separatism have become serious concerns. Currently, there are approximately 160 zones of ethnopolitical tension, 80 of which have unresolved conflicts.

There is a clear trend towards shifting the focus of interstate conflicts to the realm of geopolitical and economic interests. The negative trends in the military and political situation are exacerbated by the desire of transnational companies to reallocate spheres of influence. Resource, demographic, and territorial issues persist. There are growing threats related to non-traditional and qualitatively new forms of information, technological, and economic expansion, the proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, and their delivery systems, as well as the rise of international terrorism and the illicit trafficking of weapons and drugs.

Extremist political, separatist, nationalist, and religious forces and movements are becoming more active, using military force and terrorist means and methods to achieve their political goals.

The most serious destabilizing factor is the desire of a number of states to use the temporary weakening of Russia's economic and military potential and its international positions to their advantage, and to limit its role in shaping the international security system and global integration processes.

Bloc politics is a constant factor in destabilizing the military and political situation. The preservation and strengthening of military and political blocs (primarily NATO) hinders the formation of an international security system and increases the threat of militarization in international relations.

Any complication of the military and political situation becomes particularly dangerous due to the high level of economic integration between states, their interconnections in other areas of life, and the devastating consequences of the use of modern weapons.

On the one hand, these contradictory trends in the development of the military and political situation in the world, and the possible consequences of its regional and even global destabilization, put the global community and international organizations, primarily the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, in the need to consolidate their efforts to prevent wars and armed conflicts, to localize and neutralize them at the earliest stages of their emergence, through coordinated and collective actions, and to actively use political and other non-military means to reduce tensions and resolve crises and conflicts. On the other hand, this confirms the well-known pattern that peaceful means of ensuring military security can

They can be effective only if they are backed up by sufficient military power to protect the country and its vital interests.

This pattern becomes especially relevant for Russia in connection with the implementation of NATO's new strategy, which the alliance has demonstrated so convincingly in the Balkans.

Given the increasing pressure from the West, Russia cannot ignore the threats from other directions. With its unique Eurasian position, Russia is affected by the processes taking place in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East. The country's vast territory, its connections between Europe and Asia, and its national resources are of great interest to multinational corporations and states seeking to become regional powerhouses.

In the south-west, the main threat is the intensification of separatism and Islamic extremism. The situation in the Caucasus, particularly in Chechnya and Dagestan, is characterized by high levels of instability, armed conflicts, a worsening socio-economic crisis, and inter-religious tensions. The control of the Caspian oil region is a pressing issue. Given the evolving situation in the region, the positions of the Georgian and Azerbaijani leadership, which have declared their loyalty to NATO, and the ongoing processes in these countries, direct military threats to Russia's security can be expected in the near future.

In the South, the military and political situation is extremely contradictory and explosive, with a dominant trend of exacerbating inter- and intra-state ethnic and religious conflicts. A distinctive feature of this situation is the desire to weaken the Russian Federation's position in the region and establish control over the extraction and transportation of energy resources to global markets.

The direction of the situation in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and several other countries in the region is also a matter of serious concern. Direct military threats to Russia's security can be expected in the medium term.

In the East, Japan and China are gaining ground amid unresolved territorial issues.

Tokyo's military policy remains focused on strengthening its alliance with the United States. The country places a strong emphasis on maintaining a high level of military readiness. The state of relations between the Korean states poses a significant threat.

China continues to strengthen its position in the region and increase its military and economic capabilities. Recent events in Yugoslavia have forced China to coordinate its efforts with Russia to counter the idea of a unipolar world and the US's attempts to implement it. However, Beijing still seeks to gain unilateral benefits and advantages in its relations with Russia.

Speaking about the dangers and threats to Russia in the 21st century, it should also be noted that the threat of nuclear war has decreased, but it has not disappeared completely. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, and China still have a high level of nuclear capabilities. India and Pakistan became new nuclear powers in 1998. The number of countries that will attempt to become nuclear powers in the 21st century is increasing. The actions of a number of countries (Israel, Libya, Iraq, Iran, and the DPRK) to acquire nuclear missile technology and create weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems are of particular concern. Given the instability and even explosiveness of the military and political situation in the Balkans, the Middle East, and the Korean Peninsula, this could contribute to the further spread of dangerous technologies.

In the near future, we can expect an intensification of the rivalry between NATO countries, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia for influence in the Middle East. With the proliferation of nuclear weapons and related technologies in South Asia, the increasing number of states possessing these weapons, and their lack of compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the situation in this region is becoming increasingly volatile and unpredictable.

Table 1. MAIN SOURCES OF MILITARY DANGER FOR RUSSIA

External sources of military danger:

Internal sources of military danger:

* territorial claims of a number of neighboring states against the Russian Federation;

* existing and potential hotbeds of military conflicts, primarily near the borders of the Russian Federation and its allies;

* violation of international agreements on the limitation and reduction of armaments;

* proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction;

* creation or expansion of military-political blocs to the detriment of the military security of the Russian Federation and its allies;

* international terrorism, illegal arms and drug trafficking.

* separatist, nationalist, religious, and political extremist forces that use (or intend to use) armed violence and other illegal forms of struggle;

* organized crime, terrorism, and smuggling activities on a scale that threatens the stability of society and the state, as well as the military security of the Russian Federation.

In the future, the potential danger will be posed by Islamic fundamentalism and separatism, which are the basis of the policies of the most reactionary Muslim regimes in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. Fundamentalists will pursue a policy of ideologizing all aspects of society, including interstate relations. Their actions will be based on a conscious disregard for conventional international law and a belief that this law does not always align with fundamental Islamic principles.

Summarizing the features of the current military and political situation in the world and its development trends, it should be emphasized that:

military force still plays a significant role in achieving the political goals of states and blocs;

The range of conditions for the use of military force is expanding. Its direct use is increasingly linked to peacekeeping activities and collective efforts to enforce peace;

there is a certain decrease in the threat of nuclear and conventional large-scale war, while the number of risks associated with low-intensity armed conflicts increases;

new centers of economic and political power are emerging, and the geopolitical rivalry between them and the United States for the redistribution of spheres of influence is intensifying;

there is a preservation and expansion of the potentially crisis-prone space (the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Central and South Asia, the Near and Middle East), and an increase in the level of regional conflict on ethnic, confessional, and criminal grounds;

there is a tendency for the arms race to resume, and there is a danger that high-precision conventional, nuclear, and other weapons of mass destruction, as well as their delivery systems, will spread in various regions;

Against the backdrop of NATO's expansion, the alliance's desire to replace the OSCE and the UN is evident. The desire and practical steps taken by NATO to use armed forces without the approval of the UN Security Council, especially outside the alliance's area of responsibility, are extremely dangerous;

The previous international and regional security mechanisms are losing their effectiveness and are unable to respond adequately

to respond to a rapidly changing strategic situation.

Thus, an analysis of the trends in the development of the military-political and military-strategic situation in the world indicates the possibility of an escalation of the situation in various regions, which could lead to the emergence of real threats to Russia's interests and security.

With all this, we must not forget:

Overestimation of threats leads to an unjustified diversion of resources from other priority areas of state activity, while underestimation leads to imbalances in military construction and major mistakes that cannot be quickly corrected in a crisis situation.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation form the basis of the country's defense. They are intended for repelling aggression directed against the Russian Federation, for armed protection of the integrity and inviolability of its territory, as well as for performing tasks in accordance with international treaties of the Russian Federation. The role and purpose of the Russian Armed Forces are legally established in the Federal Law "On Defense". Based on the leading role of the Armed Forces in ensuring the country's defense, they should be able to solve a whole range of diverse defense tasks that require the organization of clear leadership, interaction and appropriate economic and financial support. Given the state of its military power, the Russian Federation must maintain its means of strategic deterrence against potential aggressors and its status as a nuclear power for the foreseeable future in order to prevent a nuclear attack or large-scale aggression using conventional forces and weapons. At the same time, the Russian Federation is ready to continue reducing its nuclear weapons on a bilateral and multilateral basis with the United States, while maintaining the overall balance of power among the leading nuclear states at a level that meets the requirements of strategic stability. The Armed Forces carry out their tasks in accordance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, federal laws of the Russian Federation on defense and security, other state regulations, and Russia's international obligations, while strictly adhering to international law.

The main tasks of the Armed Forces in ensuring the country's military security will be:

strategic deterrence of a potential aggressor, primarily by nuclear means, from launching a war against Russia and its allies;

ensuring, if necessary, the state's political actions through a demonstration of force and naval presence;

reliable protection of the State Border of the Russian Federation and prevention of armed groups from entering its territory;

maintaining the composition and condition of nuclear forces at a level that ensures the inevitability of nuclear retaliation against an aggressor in any situation;

localization and neutralization of border armed conflicts by the troops (forces) of constant readiness, and, in the event of escalation, the implementation of a full or partial strategic deployment of the Armed Forces, the repulsion of aggression, and the achievement of the set military-political and military-strategic goals.

In the current situation, the tasks of the Armed Forces in the security system of the Russian Federation are not limited to the country's defense. The need for the use of military force requires a broader framework. Peacekeeping has become a priority for the Armed Forces, as it is a powerful tool for Russia's foreign policy. The use of Russian troops in peacekeeping operations is one of the ways to protect the national interests of the Russian Federation and ensure its security.

It is advisable to conclude this issue by outlining the Minister of Defense's requirements for the organization of combat training and the tasks facing the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the troops in the new academic year.

Table 2

MAIN TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MILITARY AND POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE WORLD AT THE TURN OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Improving the international situation and reducing the possibility of unleashing large-scale wars (primarily nuclear wars)

Preservation of the danger of occurrence of local-scale military conflicts and their escalation, the use of military force to resolve disputed issues

FACTORS

the disappearance of the global contradiction between the two world socio-political systems as a source of global military danger;

The US's commitment to hegemony and dictatorship, the expansion of NATO's influence, and the reliance on force to resolve crises;

The formation of new states in Europe and Central Asia, the redistribution of spheres of influence, and the resurgence of conflicts leading to instability and wars;

the realization by the political leadership of the leading powers, especially the nuclear powers, of the futility of a war between them;

reduction of arms levels and forces by the most powerful countries, and strengthening of confidence-building measures;

the presence of an economic crisis in the new states and the deepening social stratification of the population;

the establishment of a new system of interstate relations and the consolidation of legal norms under the auspices of the United Nations as the main regulator of emerging conflicts;

the promotion of conflicts by nationalist and other political forces in order to achieve their political goals, using military force for this purpose;

strengthening and further development of international and regional security structures.

an increase in non-traditional types of danger: environmental, social, criminal, and international terrorism.

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