V. V. Naumkin, V. V. Popov, and V. A. Kuznetsov, IV RAS; Factof mirovoi politiki i ISAA MSU im.

Moscow: IV RAS Publ., 2012, 593 p.

Often, turning points in the development of a particular region, or even the whole of humanity, occur suddenly for contemporaries, and there is a seeming impression that they do not have prerequisites, retrospect and conditionality. Of course, events of this magnitude could not have been just a historical accident, but were a natural result of the socio-political and economic development of most Arab countries in the previous decades. The effect of randomness and surprise was caused by the fact that outdated regimes, which did not want to take into account the accumulating negative factors of their authoritarian rule against the background of rapid demographic growth, only created the impression of internal state stability. This illusion, which was readily accepted by foreign partners, could not but be replaced by an explosion of destructive power.

The events of the "Arab Spring" came as a surprise to the vast majority of domestic and foreign specialists, who were at first in a state of considerable confusion. However, there was no shortage of explanations, analytical reviews, forecasts and predictions, but the collapse of events, like the "domino principle", immediately overturned and debunked most of them.

It soon became clear that it takes some time to understand the dynamics, to calculate the regularities of the characteristics of new internal realities and processes. Therefore, the next, more serious stage of research, which was realized in the appearance of thematic collections of articles and collective monographs, began somewhat later.

Among such scientific publications, it is necessary to take revenge on the collection of articles "Partnership of Civilizations: there is no reasonable alternative" edited by V. V. Naumkin (Moscow, 2011). This thematic collection was compiled to mark the anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack. But the tragedy of ten years ago has already entered the category of textbook events, and it is not surprising that to a large extent the authors ' attention was drawn to the events of the "Arab Spring", which are not yet completely amenable to serious analysis. In particular, the first section of the collection, an article by E. M. Primakov, was published under the title "The Arab Spring and Theories of Civilizational Collisions". The first assessments of protest movements in Arab countries were also contained in the articles of other authors of the collection (B. V. Dolgov, Dr. Wasim Kalajie, O. T. Perssypkin). Among such analytical publications, it is necessary to mention the monograph by A.M. Vasiliev and N. I. Petrov "Recipes of the Arab Spring: the Russian Version "(Moscow, 2012 ), which is directly devoted to the protest movements taking place in the Arab world.

A bright contribution to the study of this burning topic was a peer-reviewed monograph. It was written by famous Orientalists, diplomats, and journalists. Each of them considered and analyzed a separate aspect within the framework of a common problem for all-the protest and revolutionary movements that continue to shake the Arab world.

The monograph is divided into four parts, each of which consists of a certain number of articles (chapters or sections as they are designated by different authors). Some authors have prepared articles for two sections out of four, most for one. In addition, as

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preface sections are preceded by two publications that have become largely decisive for this publication, accumulating the entire set of issues (in all its controversy).

The first of them is written by V. V. Naumkin and is called " Instead of a Preface: The cycle of the Arab Awakening "(pp. 3-23). On the one hand, Vitaly V. presented the book and the authors as researchers in various fields, on the other hand, he demonstrated a general understanding of the events and phenomena under study, noting: "The authors of the articles have different views on the turbulent, revolutionary events in the region" (p. 3). Further, mentioning his own retrospective view as an example, V. V. Naumkin notes that these movements, despite their landslide nature, still do not seem completely new and unexpected, that the region, despite all the differences between the past epochs, it has already experienced periods of similar bursts of activity among the masses of the people (p. 4). Below are examples of the so-called Arab awakening after World War II, the "Arab cold War" of the 1950s and 1960s, the waves of discontent that swept through the Arab world in the late 1980s, numerous bread riots, etc. (p. 4). 4). In general, when reading the text of V. V. Naumkin, the reader once again becomes aware of the danger of stereotypes roaming the pages of the international press and forming an inadequate perception of reality. The author points out that not only mass movements in the Arab East were not exceptionally new and unexpected in its history, but also the widespread mobilization of participants through communication and information technologies is not completely new. Both traditional and new means of mobilization were used, and the role of the latter was not absolute.

Specialists, experts and others should not be carried away by momentary illusions.This is the footnote refrain of this article. For example, the paper mentions (p.11) the apparent prospect of weakening the Arab-Israeli conflict or, at least, moving it to the background against the background of the events of the "Arab spring". However, this is only an apparent prospect, and later V. V. Naumkin notes that the Israeli government "only decided to take advantage of the situation in order to continue steps towards the development of the occupied territories" (p.11), and here it is indicated exactly by what methods and concrete actions.

The author rightly warns some analysts against searching for some plots of Western enemies, including those aimed at the victory of Islamists in the Arab revolutions. The very idea of an "Islamic democratic movement" seems daunting to many in the West, and indeed in the Middle East (p.13).

In general, Islamism, political Islam, problems related to Iran and the Arabian monarchies are given close attention in this section. In a sense, the range of problems that have become the objects of analysis in subsequent articles is indicated, but at the same time an analytical tool is provided for understanding them. At the end of the article, recipes for the Russian scientific and expert community on the methodology and methodology of analysis, especially for estimated tolerances, are not announced. The author simply says that it is necessary to carefully study all the diverse realities and processes in the modern Arab world, and also points out the need to "pay attention to the needs and needs of the Muslim population of our country" (p.20).

Second preliminary collection section "Russia's Middle East Course: Historical Stages" is written by E. M. Primakov. Of course, this topic is very familiar to the master of Russian Oriental studies and has repeatedly become the object of his research, but, perhaps, each time with a specific task or through the prism of special circumstances. In this case, these are the circumstances of the "Arab Spring". The first sentence, stating that "The Middle East has historically been and remains in the sphere of Russia's interests" (p.21), confirms the author's invariable political credo, although it also emphasizes that due to changes in the region and transformations in our state, the motives of Russian Middle East policy have sometimes changed radically.

In a brief retrospective of Russian policy in the Middle East from the 18th to the beginning of the 20th century, the author is far from presenting a long period of relations in pink, but any such long process is dictated primarily by the historically established relationship between Russia and the countries of the Middle East.

The characteristic features of the Middle East problem at the moment are expressed in a brief but precise and in-depth analysis of the current socio-economic and political situation in a number of Arab countries, as well as in the positions and alignment of forces of the main players - the United States, Israel, Iran and Russia (pp. 27-29).

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In conclusion, the author emphasizes that the "Arab Spring" is changing the Arab world, its consequences will certainly affect the nature of political power and the socio-economic situation, and will require "... more than ever, combining the efforts of all interested countries to achieve security and stability in the region" (p.30).

The first section of the collective monograph "Transformation of the Region" includes articles by six authors: L. O. Filonik, V. M. Akhmedov, A. G. Baklanov, N. Lazhmi, G. I. Mirsky, O. V. Pavlov. The first of them is written by the well-known economist A. O. Filonik, a specialist in various fields of economic, financial and banking activities of Arab societies. Of course, the author's specialization allows him to identify and investigate the deep basic motives of socio-political upheavals, which he calls "the spring of anger" (p. 33). This, of course, is the special value of this section, because it is the success of the economy that can ensure stability in development and even modernization, as well as protect it from social upheavals. At the very beginning of the article, the foundations and focus of the research, a certain credo of the author are laid. It rightly points out that the revolutionary movements involved, firstly, secular, republican states with authoritarian regimes; and secondly, states that were approximately similar in the quality of macroeconomic stabilization (p.33). It is this unifying principle that allowed the author to identify the general and specific prerequisites of protest movements, to raise the question of how further changes in the political system can in turn affect the economic vector of development. In addition, the second part of the article provides interim, but already very disappointing results of the economic losses of the Arab world during the ongoing protest wave.

The article by one of the leading Russian experts on socio-political processes in the modern Middle East, V. M. Akhmedov, examines the role of the army as a political entity in the events of the"Arab Spring". The armed forces have for many decades been one of the main, if not the main, centers of power in the countries of the region. Therefore, at the dawn of the "Arab spring", experts often expressed confidence that the events in Egypt, for example, are not a revolution, but another coup d'etat, and the role of the new forces even after the elections will be largely decorative. Real power will remain in the hands of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which became the country's interim highest authority on February 11, 2011. However, the army fulfilled its commitment to transfer power to a democratically elected President on June 30, 2012, and a few weeks later, its former chairman, Marshal Tantawi, was dismissed from his post as Minister of Defense and Military Industry, which did not cause any visible resistance to the army. Analysis conducted by V. M. Akhmedov, reveals the reasons for this course of events (although the article was written before the Armed Forces handed over power to President Morsi), as well as the specifics of the army's strategy during the "Arab Spring" in Syria, Yemen, Tunisia, Libya, and Bahrain.

Considering the retrospective of the army's establishment as one of the centers of power in the mid-20th century, the author formulates an important idea:" The military's rise to power was a consequence of the actual absence of any other real social and political force in society at the stage of aggravation of internal political and social contradictions " (p.73). At the same time, the army, coming to power as a result of social revolutions that took the form of military coups, reflected the interests of those social groups that came to power on this wave. At that stage, military rule reduced the severity of political conflicts and stabilized society. But in Egypt of the 2011 model, this other political force has already formed in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood association. And for the first time, a democratically elected, and "civilian" person became the head of the state, despite the idea rooted in the political culture of Egypt, emphasized by V. M. Akhmedov, that the supreme power should be concentrated in the hands of the military. The peculiarity of the unique case of Syria, where the" spring " first passed sluggishly, and then turned into a full-scale civil war, the author largely connects it with the army, which was strongly ideologized and politically closely connected "with the regime with which the top commanders of the army and special services associated themselves more than with the people and society" (p. 83). In the framework of the general forecast, V. M. Akhmedov notes that the experience of Egypt will influence the process of transformation of the role of the army in the countries of the region (p. 90).

Nouri Lajmi, a researcher at the Institute of Press and Information Sciences (Tunis), examines an extremely relevant and important issue - the role of the media and protest journalism in the events of the Arab Spring, especially the Qatari satellite channel Al-Jazeera (pp. 108-116). The author recognizes the enormous influence of Al-Jazeera, which has become the" voice of Israel".

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In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Al-Jazeera managed to beat the Western media in a competitive struggle and gain a reputation for being a" silent "media outlet, a space for expressing opinions opposed to authoritarian regimes (p. 115). Thanks to the most rapid awareness of the consequences of the revolution in information technologies, a new concept of material delivery, and an understanding of the audience's mentality, leading positions in the regional information space. At the same time, based in Qatar, Al-Jazeera is used by Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani as a tool to promote his own political interests. This was especially clear in the case of Qatar's intervention in the overthrow of Gaddafi and the political construction of post-Gaddafi Libya (p. 114).

Even from the title of G. I. Mirsky's article "The Arab Spring between America and Al-Qaeda", it becomes clear that the author considers the possibility of external, and multidirectional, polar interventions in internal revolutionary processes. One of them is from the United States in order to introduce the movement in a pro-American direction, the other is the threat of a sharp and extreme Islamization of the revolution (p. 107). The author points out that none of these threats materialized, and sets out to find out how the previous political attitudes and their implementation on the part of the United States and Islamists influenced the subsequent course of action of both.

In the first part of the chapter devoted to US policy, G. I. Mirsky notes that Egypt was the main test during the crisis, and there were three main options for the Obama administration: support for an old ally, a position of neutrality, and support for anti-government protest actions. The third option was chosen, perhaps the most unpopular, but the only correct one, given the experience of past failures. According to the author, this made it possible, even in a modified form, to maintain cooperation with the new leaders of the "Arab Spring" (p. 122).

The second part of the chapter," The Rise and Decline of Jihadism, "examines the period of the early twenty-first century, i.e., the time when the long-term plan of the first global terrorist organization in history, Al-Qaeda, was implemented. The very wording of this part of the chapter implies the definition of "jihad" as a holy war, its capabilities, limitations and social base. Here, on the basis of concrete material, very important conclusions are made, including what militant Islamism cannot do. First of all, even his followers cannot imagine how Islamists can run a modern country without a project and a vision for the future (p.129). That is why, according to the author, where the Islamists managed to win (Egypt, Tunisia), there is nothing radical or forbidden in their programs, even from the standpoint of ordinary Sharia law. Therefore, it is possible to search for a "third way" that combines the preservation of cultural identity with the assimilation of the traditions of modern political culture.

In the works of A. G. Baklanov and O. V. Pavlov, regional processes are considered in the context of world politics and international relations: problems of the Middle East security system and the reasons for the alliance of the West and radical Islam.

The second part of the monograph "Arab States in 2011-2012" includes twelve chapters-articles, where the authors, according to a given chronology, study the current situation in certain Arab countries: Tunisia (V. A. Kuznetsov, M. F. Vidyasova, A. A. Kashina), Algeria (V. V. Dolgov), Egypt (A. G. Aksenenok), Libya (A. Z. Yegorin), the small states of the Persian Gulf (E. S. Mslkumyan), Yemen (S. N. Serebrov), Syria (V. M. Akhmedov), Jordan (A. V. Demchenko), Lebanon (A. V. Sarabyev), Saudi Arabia (G. G. Kosach), Morocco (I. M. Mokhov). Naturally, this current situation is either completely explosive in the countries where the "spring" has arrived, or rather a crisis, because its breath is felt throughout the region.

V. A. Kuznetsov's first article "Tunis (2010-2011)" is devoted to the analysis of the political structure of Tunisia, as well as to the revolutionary changes that have already taken shape in its political space. According to the author's definition, in this "quiet tourist paradise of the Mediterranean" (p.138), the terrible death in late December 2010 of 26-year-old unemployed bachelor Mohammed Bouazizi blew up the country. This explosion was the detonator of all the subsequent upheavals in the region. Why choose Tunisia? Neither the author nor his colleagues can answer this question, apparently, because this could have happened in any of the countries of the region. But the specifics of the Tunisian events, the crisis of the system of values, the reasons for the inadequacy of the authorities, their lack of understanding of what is happening are all fully described.

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The electoral potential of the main political parties, the order of elections, and their immediate prospects are carefully considered. Summing up his conclusions, the author notes that everything that happened in Tunisia is certainly already a revolution with the appropriate, in his opinion, name "Revolution of Freedom and Dignity" (p. 168).

The Tunisian theme is continued by the article "Tunis (2012)" by M. V. Vidyasova and L. A. Kashina, dedicated to the acute political struggle that broke out over the issues of elections to the national constituent Assembly, changes to the constitution (along the line of its Islamization), and the struggle between modernists and Islamists. The authors are also interested in the Tunisian economy, which did not flourish before the revolutionary events, and subsequently found itself in a state of crisis. As a summary, the authors present the political life of Tunisia as a future sea, slightly calmed down after a strong storm, and admit that with all the costs, "Tunisia may remain the vanguard of the Arab Spring, without falling back to the margins of the Muslim world" (p.188).

V. V. Dolgov's research is devoted to the peculiarities of the Algerian version of the "Arab Spring", which turned out to be surprisingly calm: more than 1 thousand street protests did not put forward radical demands for the overthrow of the regime, did not develop into an uprising (p. 189), although the socio-economic problems of Algeria are similar to those that were among the causes of the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. Often this phenomenon is explained by the fear of a new civil war, the memory of which is still alive, but the author shows that this is not the main reason. The bloody conflict of the 1990s did not force the country's leadership to abandon the democratic reforms initiated by the adoption of the Constitution of 1989.Opposition parties, both secular and Islamist, are given a real opportunity to fight in the legal political field. According to V. V. Dolgov, "perhaps no parliament in the Arab world knows of such an ideological diversity of the political palette" (p. 195). Therefore, the calls at the 2011-2012 rallies were moderate: reducing the powers of the president, turning Algeria into a parliamentary republic, and improving the electoral legislation. The demands were not ignored, and President Bouteflika promptly (in April 2011) announced a program for further democratization and began to implement it. By the way, the sequence of democratic reforms, carried out without prejudice to the socio-economic situation of the masses, apparently had an impact on the fact that the problems of corruption and nepotism in Algeria, although they exist, but clearly to a lesser extent than in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen on the eve of the "spring" events.

A. G. Aksenyonok sums up the political outcome of the transition period in Egypt for August 2012 and cautiously predicts further developments, in particular, "the formation of an influential opposition force in time as part of a coalition of liberal and moderate nationalist parties of a social-democratic orientation" (p.220). As you know, on November 24, 2012, the National Salvation Front was actually organized, headed by Hamdeen Sabbahi, Amr Musa and Muhammad al-Baradei. A. G. Aksenyonok sees the main challenge of the ruling Freedom and Justice Party in the contradiction between the religious principles set out in the election program and the pragmatism necessary in practical politics (how will the issue of future relations with Israel be resolved, whether it is possible to take loans from the IMF, etc.).

In the article by A. Z. Yegorin, the author of many monographs, popular science books, and textbooks about Libya, an objective analysis of Gaddafi's domestic and foreign policy of the last decade, as a result of which the regime and the country were defenseless before the catastrophe of 2011, is replaced by a poignant and tragic chronicle of the last war and the death of the colonel, his "Words of Farewell" and Further, we will study the situation in post-Gaddafi Libya, which is now under the threat of "decentralization or even collapse" (p. 239). According to the author's observation, the political field of Libya is now divided according to three principles at once: ideological, territorial and tribal, which, in the context of attempts to build bourgeois democracy on the shaky ground of social archaism, can lead to these consequences, especially since the separatism of certain regions is supported by some Arab countries.

Investigating the extent of the spread of the "Arab Spring" to the small Gulf states in his article, E. S. Melkumyan emphasizes that the impact of popular unrest could become so large-scale only because by the end of the noughties the Arab countries were united by one information field, in particular, by the Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya TV channels, as well as Internet access. The difference in the degree of involvement in the "Arab Spring" depends on the "level of

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political maturity of society, the presence or absence of a formed political opposition, and the peculiarities of political history" (pp. 240-241). E. S. Melkumyan pays special attention to the situation in Bahrain. It was initially complicated by the inferiority of the Shiite majority, which led to a fierce conflict between the opposition and the government, which eventually resorted to external assistance from its partners in the GCC, having previously accused Iran and Syria of inciting citizens to overthrow the regime (later the accusations were not confirmed). However, according to the author's forecast, the stability of the political system is not threatened yet, as the political process is developing in the direction of its improvement (p. 248).

The "Arab spring" in Syria has taken a special and tragic form. Until now, the civil war there has not stopped, which by February 2013, according to the UN estimates, has already claimed more than 70 thousand lives, and the number of victims continues to grow. V. M. Akhmedov shows how a very prosperous and stable country, mainly as a result of tactical mistakes, an excessively tough line of the leadership and the intransigence of the opposition, has consistently turned into an arena of uncompromising and the bloody struggle in which both major regional forces and world powers are now involved.

In Jordan, which is the subject of A.V. Demchenko's article, in the noughties, selective and very inconsistent political modernization was combined with the same economic liberalization. At the same time, the situation in the country is complicated by the disparity of the population: about 60% are Palestinians, who have never demonstrated absolute loyalty to the king. By actively building a nation under the slogan "Jordan first", which has not been very successful so far, Abdullah II has achieved an important effect of increasing the loyalty of Palestinians, whose private businesses have benefited from liberalization and privatization, but now East Jordanians working in the public sector are showing discontent. The Arab Spring brought Jordan massive protests and a political crisis, in which the king proved to be a dynamic and wise politician, ready to engage in dialogue with the opposition and make reasonable concessions. As a result, the demands of the protesters do not go beyond the reform of the electoral legislation and limiting the powers of the monarch.

Somewhat similar processes that took place in Morocco are considered in the work of I. M. Mokhova. The gradual and consistent democratization of the political system over a number of years, the instant reaction of the monarch to social protest, the readiness for limited but seemingly large-scale reforms (a new constitution, early parliamentary elections) - all this allowed Mohammed VI to reduce the heat of protest, resolve the crisis and strengthen his authority.

In the third part of the collective monograph - "Regional and external factors", the authors consider the position and reaction of foreign countries that are more or less involved in the events of the" Arab Spring", are able to influence them or even actively intervene. Explicit stylization can be traced even in the names of sections: USA (P. V. Topychkanov, Yu. V. Ustinova), European Union (D. A. Danilov), France (N. V. Tatarchuk), Israel (T. A. Karasova), Iran (L. M. Kulagina, V. M. Akhmedov), Turkey (I. I. Ivanova).

In the first article by P. V. Topychkanov and Yu. V. Ustinova, "The United States of America", it is noted that the Arab events took the United States by surprise. Nevertheless, the "conspiracy theory" mentioned at the beginning of the book by E. M. Primakov continues to be popular, and in particular "the scenario invented by Washington for the countries of the region". The authors see their task in considering the phenomenon of the "Arab Spring" and US foreign policy in retrospect, in order to determine their real role and place in regional political processes. Therefore, at the beginning of the article, attention is paid to the conceptualization of the US Middle East policy in 1993-2001. In particular, the authors give an assessment presented by the White House in May 1997 "National Security Strategies in the new Century", where special attention was paid to the Middle East as the most important source of energy resources (p. 404). Attention is also paid to the significance of the Middle East in the ideology of the American Renaissance (2001-2008), and then the retrospective set by the authors leads to the problems of the "Arab spring in US foreign policy". Special attention is paid to the assessments of American experts, who, unlike politicians, are not inclined to associate the "Arab Spring" with the mistakes of the Obama administration, but tend to see a complex set of factors in its events. The main conclusions of the authors are reduced to a number of statements: The Middle East remains one of the key directions of US foreign policy, and Washington's efforts here are aimed at supporting Israel; an important factor in the evolution of US policy in the Middle East has been the change in the country's economic opportunities and regional political landscape; Arab countries are becoming more-

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They are trying to enlist the support of other international partners, and if the United States cannot change this trend, then it is not necessary to change it (with a footnote to the American expert F. Kolesnikov). Zakaria) (p. 416).

Of course, a limited section in a collective monograph cannot take into account all the circumstances of a multi-faceted process. But was the massive outburst of discontent such a surprise for Washington? After all, back in February 2011, at a Senate hearing, a CIA representative stated that the presidential administration was warned about the threats of instability in Egypt at the end of 2010. Apparently, the question is not so much a surprise, but rather an underestimation of the possible consequences, unsatisfactory calculations and deceived illusions. The question of Obama's "restraint" and willingness to cooperate with the victorious opposition forces may need to take into account his desire to demonstrate that in defending America's interests, he is ready to sacrifice former allies and partners.

Among the external factors involved in the Arab processes, one of the most active is the position of Israel. This position is, on the one hand, ambivalent and ambiguous: of course, there was no sympathy for authoritarian regimes; on the other hand, would the alternative not be worse? T. A. Karasova, in her article "Israel and some results of the Arab Spring", immediately states that "the consequences of the Arab Spring that began in Tunis in the winter of 2011 continue to spread not only to the Arab world, but also to the entire region, including Israel" (p.486). His Government fears a possible long-term instability in Arab countries, as well as the growing influence of political Islam and anti-Israeli sentiment. In addition, the current pan-Arab crisis is taking place against the background of the problem of confrontation with Iran, a sharp deterioration in relations with Turkey, as well as a permanent struggle with the militants of Hamas and Hezbollah.

According to the author, currently the main threat in the region is Iran. But even here, Israel's position is not obvious, and opinions are divided in the Israeli leadership. The most extreme and radical position is taken by the current Prime Minister B. Netanyahu, who refused to coordinate the proposed strike on Iran with the White House. However, even here, according to T. A. Karasova, the situation has not yet been determined, because bellicose rhetoric can still be a means to encourage Washington to take more decisive sanctions against Iran.

Israel's policy towards the Arab States after the Arab Spring is determined by taking into account the above-mentioned circumstances. This section identifies the main priorities: Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan. Moreover, there is no certainty and cannot be in any of the directions. Israeli society is particularly concerned about developments in Syria. The article specifically stipulates that the outcome of the battle in Syria will determine the face of the entire region, and for Israel in the first place. Syria was a link between Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, and it is probably better to deal with the weakened regime of Bashar al-Assad in the long run than with the situation of unmanageable chaos fraught with any dangers.

Relations with the Palestinian Authority are also analyzed. There is also no clear strategy here, just as the Palestinian leaders do not have one. As a result, the author notes a very important and interesting fact - paradoxically, today there are four most active leaders in the region: Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, and three of them are non-Arab. But Israel has no allies or spheres of influence in the region. Therefore, the only way to ensure security is to maintain two factors: defensive strength and reliance on an external ally. In the subtext, the reader may see that a variety of tactical developments are possible, but the survival strategy cannot change yet.

The last part of the book" The Arab Awakening and Russia " brings together six thematically integrated publications. Of course, the basis of the conceptual series was laid by the introductory article of E. M. Primakov, but the value of each of the sections of this part lies in specialization and bright individuality.

The first of them, "Russia's Perception of events in the Arab world (on the example of the situation around Syria)", belongs to I. D. Zvyagelskaya. First of all, she notes that from the point of view of Russia's interests, the current events seem ambiguous and uncertain. At the same time, the author points out that "the level of intervention in the events of Arab countries was different, but fears that armed force is becoming the main means of overthrowing undesirable regimes largely determined Russia's reaction to events in individual Arab countries" (p.530). A characteristic phenomenon that is particularly noted in this article is that these events dramatically revived the phobias inherent in some of the Russian observers associated with

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with US conspiracies (for example, the theory of "controlled chaos"), which resulted in " landslide events in the Arab world."

Another important factor that has influenced the interpretation of events in the Arab world is the energy factor. The issue of oil prices has sometimes become a priority in assessing the significance for Russia of certain events that could directly or indirectly affect it. The Arab revolutions were directly and, according to I. D. Zvyagselskaya, without any justification, linked by some Russian experts to the attempts of the United States to establish its control over Middle Eastern oil and, accordingly, to infringe on Russia.

I. D. Zvyagelskaya quite rightly states that the basis for a wide range of assessments of the events of the "Arab Spring" in Russia was given by the events themselves, which were fundamentally different from each other, despite the presence of common components. The problem is that they do not fit into the scenarios of riots or mass demonstrations in third world countries. From this perspective, there is little to explain the attempts of some Russian experts to interpret what is happening solely in the context of the logic and vocabulary of the Cold War.

The diversity of assessments, according to the author, may also be due to the lack of official explanations of the Russian Foreign Ministry for the reasons that shape Russian policy on the Syrian issue. The analytical search continues, "and here propaganda bindings are inevitable" (p. 539).

The article by Yu. N. Zinin examines the reaction of Russian researchers to the events of the "Arab Spring", which they expressed at various round tables, conferences, in the press and scientific publications. A. O. Filonik examines the economic relations of the Russian Federation with the countries of the Arab East at the beginning of the XXI century and analyzes the possible impact of the "Arab Spring" on the prospects for cooperation in Vladimir Chamov, former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Libya, speaks from the point of view of a diplomat, a witness to the events, about the tragic end of the Jamahiriya. Article BB. Shuvasva is devoted to the Russian assessment of the situation in Iraq after the American "surgical intervention" in 2003. V. V. Popov's work deals with the prospects of inter-civilizational dialogue in the Middle East in the context of Russia's obvious desire to intensify interaction with the Arab-Muslim world.

The book as a whole provides both a panoramic picture and a detailed, comprehensive analysis of the historical process of the beginning of the XXI century in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The issue of the "Arab Spring" will remain relevant for a long time, because these events were the beginning of tectonic shifts in the region, and it is still impossible to predict the final configuration. However, the research conducted by the authors of the collective monograph reveals certain features of the political process. Taking into account both the internal situation and foreign policy factors, those regimes from the socio-economic "risk group" that over the past decade have pursued a policy of consistent democratization, the development of parliamentarism and an open dialogue with the emerging civil society have passed the test of the "Arab Spring" almost without losses. At the same time, the more uncompromising and rigid the authorities were in the political field, even with a socially-oriented economic strategy, the more dramatic the open phase of the conflict developed and the less likely it was to preserve the original political system. Time will tell how true this observation is, and whether the peoples of the Arab East will be able to overcome their authoritarian mentality and implement their own democratic project.

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