At the beginning of the XXI century, the modern East is experiencing a period of significant changes. After the modernization was completed, it was divided into two zones: more developed and modern countries, and less developed countries in which the modernization process did not lead to a change in the quality of the social system due to a complex of demographic, economic, political, and socio-cultural factors. The purpose of the article is to provide a theoretical understanding of the question of various strategies for implementing reforms for a new modernization.

Key words: East, modernization, economy, reforms.

The changing parameters of the socio-economic and political development of the modern world, the previously unprecedented quality of technologies, various manifestations of globalization-all this and much more allows us to talk about the ongoing process of systemic transformation. This process of crisis of the development model could not fail to cover directly or indirectly the countries of the East, further complicating the development of a modern or semi-modern society there.

To understand the general laws of the crisis phenomenon and possible ways out of it, we should not limit ourselves to describing the cases of crisis that have occurred in the history of large social systems, but rather identify within these processes the general parameters of the system and recurring elements and phenomena, with more or less significant differences in the number of cases of crisis.-

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with the highest degree of fidelity, they characterize its state: crisis (decline) - transition period (transit) - exit from the crisis.

What is fundamentally important is a holistic approach, not just an integrated approach that takes into account direct and indirect relationships and interdependencies within the system and the system in the external environment. At the same time, within the framework of the national state, society is considered as a complex, internally unified system (socio-industrial organism, OPO), open to interaction with the external environment. External environment - the natural and socio-economic state of the world (as well as national, regional and global political, socio-economic and civilizational-cultural systems) in a certain historical period. Various spheres of society's life (economy, social and political life, culture and spiritual life) are autonomous subsystems that are interconnected and mutually conditioned in their development, capable of independent interaction with the external environment.

By the end of the 20th century, the countries of the East completed modernization, which largely determined their development in the second half of the century. More precisely, the catch - up modernization has come to an end-following the Western model of a more socially and economically developed society in order to overcome poverty, backwardness and stabilize the political regime (see [Yakovlev, 2010]). The relative success of the Eastern countries was evident in formal indicators: an increase in life expectancy, a decrease in mortality, an increase in the number of literates, the emergence of industrial enterprises, the growth of cities and urbanization, and the fragmented inclusion of society in the process of globalization.

At the same time, with the completion of catch-up modernization, the disintegration of the former "third world" into two unequal parts became obvious: the second-third and third-fourth. In the first part of society, they were able to use modernization with great efficiency and effectiveness to make a qualitative leap in socio-economic development and approach the level of developed Western countries in some indicators: high-tech, post-industrial production, the level and quality of life, as well as the level of consumption comparable to the West are of great importance in the economy [Khanna, 2010].

In the second part, on the contrary, due to a combination of various objective and subjective circumstances, modernization turned out to be a top-level process that did not affect the system-forming foundations of society, which led society to lower positions than the starting ones, which, however, does not mean complete collapse. But there was no complete industrialization, agriculture remained at the pre-industrial level, as well as the quality of life and consumption level. In other words, there is still a reproduction of poverty and backwardness.

In such countries of the East, the continuing instability of economic and social development calls for new comprehensive changes, modernization of a new level and model-modernization of development, especially since, along with the usual ones, new grounds for a national-scale crisis have emerged.

On the verge of centuries, some negative phenomena and natural factors that hinder or hinder modernization have become more acute or obvious in a number of countries: population growth, lack of water resources and arable land, and the environmental situation. Along with them, certain other circumstances remained: illiteracy and low quality of the labor force, the continuing dominance of traditional civilizational and cultural values in public life, the predominant role of the state in public life, along with the weak social activity of society in relation to creative activities.

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These circumstances determine the difference in goals facing the two groups of Eastern countries.

For the second and third world countries (the newly industrialized countries of Southeast and East Asia, the oil-producing countries of Arabia, Turkey and Iran, as well as China and India), the goals were to strengthen the model of post-industrial and industrial society: further improving the quality of life of the population, developing industry and agriculture, and intensively integrating into the global system of production and consumption.

In the third and fourth world countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Egypt and other Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa), the task of implementing the model of an industrial (or semi-industrial) society remains: maintaining socio-economic stability, increasing agriculture to provide the population with food, industrialization to meet the needs of the national market and reduce unemployment, increasing the number of people living in the volume and quality of external assistance.

Thus, if the first group of Eastern countries is experiencing a crisis of transition from a modern to a post-modern society, a crisis of systemic transformation, then in the second group of countries, the transition to an industrial society in a post-modern world remains an unsolved problem. At the same time, the similarity of civilizational and cultural parameters, as well as the presence of a number of common problems in relations with the outside world brings both groups closer together in choosing the means and methods of solving the problems of overcoming the crisis and development.

A system crisis is a problem in the system that prevents its existence in an unchanged form. A crisis within a system manifests itself first in one or more subsystems. Manifestations of the crisis include the rejection of system-forming principles and an attempt to replace them with others; the emergence of cases of open rejection of authority, power and the law; the emergence of imbalances in the national economy. In the subsystem, there are points of decline (elements of the old system that have exhausted their potential or are less productive than the new ones) and points of growth (elements of the new system that have high productivity). The organic integrity of the system in its previous form is violated. It is obvious that the former material and non-material potential of society is being depleted, reversible or irreversible.

A system crisis - the cumulative effect of problems in the main, vital subsystems-occurs when negative processes coincide in several subsystems, possibly under the influence of an external factor.

An obvious indicator of the crisis of the system is the increasing difficulties in the two most important processes: production (agricultural and industrial) and exchange (within the national economy and within the world economy), the consequences of which are increasing imbalances in the production process, food and financial crises, shortage of goods on the market, unemployment, poverty, hunger and poverty. Within the framework of the system, the authority of the authorities is questioned; the system-forming principles and meaning of the system's existence are rejected, its values, ideas and ideals are rejected. The system weakens under the blows of the external environment (the use of violent measures or "soft power" pressure by Western countries), without having the potential to repel them. Stages of the crisis: from partial weakening of some subsystems to a decline in the viability of the system.

Unrelated worrying phenomena are emerging: slowing economic growth, increasing activity of certain opposition groups, lack of investment, division and struggle within the ruling and ruling elites, growing dissatisfaction with various social forces, rising inflation, challenges from neighboring states, financial crisis, increased struggle within the elite, frequent and open manifestations of corruption in the country. conflicts (national, social, religious, youth-

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social, cultural) within society, the emergence of an open center of opposition. A palliative way to mitigate a crisis or delay its completion is war, using the potential of another system through violence. The way out of the crisis is modernization. The alternative is stagnation and chaos.

Modernization can take place through revolution or reform. Both constitute the period of the system's transit from a crisis to a qualitatively new state.

Revolution is a violent change of power and elite that hinder growth and development or are not capable of modernization. Revolution has its own goals and means for rebuilding society on a new basis. Revolution is not a revolt, revolution is not meaningless, it is like opening a "boil" on the body of society. But revolution is like the movement of a train without a driver: the ultimate goal - modernization-is achieved with greater effort and greater cost, because the time and effort of society are spent on achieving the subjective (destructive) goals of revolutionaries, which are objectively not binding on society. The events of the Arab Spring of 2011-2014 in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria clearly showed this.

Reform - legitimate and purposeful transformations of the system; the government defines new goals for the development of the system and directs the development of public service organizations to achieve them. The initial impulse of the authorities to act and the primary goal is the desire for self-preservation in the system. The first measures are partial changes in one or more subsystems (internal reform). System reform - abandoning the old system-forming principles in vital subsystems and replacing them with new ones; development of subsystems on a qualitatively new basis.

Modernization is a long process (25 - 50 - 100 years). This is not consistently linear, but intermittently abrupt development of the system, determined by a special combination of the system's potential, the efforts of the authorities, the capabilities of society, and the influence of an external factor. Development is losing its smooth character, and the society's former organic integrity is being disrupted. In the course of accelerated asymmetric development, individual subsystems develop at different rates and with different results.

Stages of modernization: from the government's encouragement of growth points in some subsystems to the reorganization of the life of the entire system on new principles in accordance with the new development goals defined by the government; recognition of the modernized system in the external environment.

Upgrade conditions:

- determination by the authorities of new guidelines and development goals in the main subsystems, based on their material and other capabilities within the system and in the external environment;

- determining the readiness of society and people for change, because the initial level (material resources and the degree of development of the national economy, intellectual, cultural and religious) directly depends on the timing and level of achievement of the desired development goal.;

- interaction of the system with the external environment without conflicts, neutral or allied;

- enriching the system modernization potential by borrowing elements of various subsystems from other effective systems;

- rejection of outdated elements in the legacy of the system that hinder modernization (also-from the points of decline); respect for traditional principles, values and norms of life in order to preserve social stability in the system.

The modernization process proceeds unevenly in general and in individual subsystems. Growth and decline criteria are not always visible at first; they combine qualitative and quantitative properties.

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Important steps in the modernization process:

- abandoning legacy features in subsystems,

- formation of growth points in subsystems,

- changing the system configuration after the "radical reform",

- combination of growth and decline points in the system,

- predominance of growth points in several vital subsystems,

- new quality of the system as a whole.

The mechanism of modernization is power, ruling and ruling elites and state bureaucracy, as well as part of the national bourgeoisie and intelligentsia (middle class). The decisive subject of modernization is the state, which assumes the mission of overcoming the crisis and strengthening the foundations of the new system. The obvious and primary incentive for modernization is the desire of the authorities for self-preservation. At the same time, self-serving restriction of transformation to this goal alone will not lead to modernization of the system, but only to delaying its end (this happened in the Ottoman Empire during the reign of Sultan Abdul Hamid II and in China through the efforts of Empress Cixi at the end of the XIX century, and at the beginning of the XXI century-in Egypt during the.

The power to overcome the systemic crisis and successfully complete modernization takes on more or less authoritarian features, which does not mean an irreversible rejection of the principles of democracy in principle (such was the character of the rule of F. D. Roosevelt during the United States ' exit from the Great Depression and World War II; such were the actions of Chiang Kai-shek in Taiwan in the 1950s-Lee Kuan Yew in his book justified the need for authoritarian methods in carrying out accelerated and purposeful transformations in society [Lee Kuan Yew, 2005, pp. 155-156, 184].

As a decisive subject of modernization, the authorities adopt a program and plan for transforming the system based on new development goals; they reorganize the state-administrative and legal subsystems to adapt them to the modernization process (for example, King Faisal's "10 points" in Saudi Arabia [Yakovlev, 1982, pp. 61-63]).

The authorities (after suppressing the resistance of opponents of change within the elite and finding agreement on the main issues of modernization there) assume more or less planning, controlling and production functions in economic life, regulating functions in socio-political life.

It is possible to create a new authoritative and authorized state structure for direct regulation and coordination of the modernization process (in Russia in the XIX century - the Main Committee on Peasant Affairs and Editorial Commissions, in China in the XXI century-the Main Committee on Reform and Development).

An important task of reformers is to form and strengthen the socio-political support in society through flexible social policy and promotion of modernization ideas, the stages of which are the emergence of hotbeds of a new way of business and life, the emergence of new social groups based on new systems of ideas and ideals.

With regard to the object of modernization - the people (the working masses, the population) - the authorities use various means that help mitigate the inevitable contradictions and conflicts, as well as promote the development of growth points. The authorities provide a new social support in the modernizing system through public consensus or imposing new ideas and values on society (proactive reforms), with the possible use of violence against the conservative part of the population that openly opposes modernization.

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POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MODERNIZATION SCENARIOS

Scenario analysis and forecasting have become commonplace in Oriental studies (see Akimov and Yakovlev, 2012). At the same time, it is important to accurately determine the possible development goals of a particular society, as well as internal and external parameters of the expected development, based on a wide range of currently not always obvious processes and trends.

For the second and third world countries, the task of maintaining socio-economic sustainability is just as important as for less developed countries. When defining the goals of socio-economic development, several possible options for modernization can be identified.

Turtle. In China and India, maintaining even relatively low rates of development, taking into account the scale of the national economy, has a positive effect. The government's control over the balanced ratio of points of decline (non-modern ways of life and management) and points of growth (modern way of life), as well as the formation of growth points in important subsystems, lead to a change in the quality of the system - an increase in its competitiveness within the global system.

Caravan and rider. In the oil monarchies of Arabia, due to objective conditions, the process of catch-up, industrial modernization has more or less smoothly developed into the modernization of development. However, in a noticeably fragmented society, the authorities rely on singling out several sectors of the economy in order to accelerate their development according to the post-modern model. In Saudi Arabia, these are petrochemicals, finance, and tourism (religious and non-religious); in the UAE, trade and logistics are added to these. A similar type of modernization is possible (on a different scale) in China and India, this is the same model of "two-track development" that was noted by observers back in the 1990s.

A gap in the dam. In many Eastern countries, dams are traditionally built on small rivers from the ground. In case of inattention of the owners (periodic exposure to people and vehicles, the existence of mice, etc.), a gap may form in the dam. A small gap and even a growing gap allow the dam to perform its functions, but if a heavy rainstorm suddenly occurs, the seemingly solid dam will quickly collapse. In the same way, a successful modernization in many respects may end in the collapse of the system due to the authorities ' inattention to seemingly secondary, apparently irrelevant factors. For the countries of the third and fourth world, which have acquired the quality of a semi-modern society, the tasks of catching up with modernization remain relevant, but they must be solved in fundamentally different external and internal conditions than a century earlier.

An obedient student. The authorities of Afghanistan (or Pakistan, Bangladesh) accept the Western model of industrial society in its economic dimension as the basis for development. By violently suppressing the remaining potential of traditional society, they develop state-owned enterprises in industry, which leads to the formation of a feudal-oligarchic authoritarian regime. This kind of socio-economic conglomerate can become viable with the constant support of an external factor.

The inner colony. To solve the growing problems, the authorities can develop the well - known model of "two-track development" - by giving up half of it. By relying on pockets of modern development in large cities and efficient agricultural enterprises, the authorities are isolating backward areas. The population of such areas will be provided with minimal living conditions, and the territories of the districts can be used to exploit resources and preserve the ecological balance. The" flames of anger " in segregated areas can be muted or extinguished until external forces want to take advantage of this factor.

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An oasis. In the new conditions, it is also possible to weaken the functions of the state in order to preserve the overall stability of society. In other words, in the course of modernization, the state abandons its control functions, while retaining mainly regulatory functions in the economy. Replacing the prevailing principle of statism with traditionalism or neo-archaism can allow for the successful development of a private corporate structure in the city and countryside. This is potentially fraught with the weakening of statehood.

It should be noted that even earlier the external factor-the West-played an important, sometimes decisive role in the modernization of the Eastern countries. In the context of globalization, its role does not decrease. The Western model of society (industrial and post-industrial) is still real as a model of development, and the West itself retains the potential of a leader in world development.

What is new is that now, along with the West, a country of the second or third world can act as a development leader offering its own model, based on its own interests of profit or security. In particular, both China and India put forward their claims to the role of a leader in regional and partly global development, where voices are heard about the formation of Pax Indica as a regional and global system of consensus rather than force.

RESULTS OF MODERNIZATION

At the heart of the social system is a person - the subject and object of social change, which is characterized by both rational and irrational aspirations and motives. The deep basis of personality is affected to a greater or lesser extent by its belonging to a certain civilization, its self-identification with a certain culture.

Despite all the differences in historical epochs with their inherent systems of ideas and systems of values, it is possible to determine the most general motives and guidelines of a person in the process of his life: his needs (desires) - his interests - his spiritual values (ideas) - its ideals (their evaluation is possible in qualitative and quantitative terms).

The experience of several modernizations of the 19th and 20th centuries has shown that this process of accelerated development at the level of the individual does not just proceed selectively, when the authorities choose its individual elements and structures as goals from the normative model. Development can stop at satisfying the interests (needs and desires) of the main mass of society, rejecting values and ideals unknown to them or neglecting them as alien to their own civilization. In other words, catch-up modernization, as a rule, did not lead to a complete westernization of Eastern society, which, while borrowing elements of the material culture of the West, remained faithful to its Tradition.

This is all the more true when considering the possibilities of modernizing development. The very fact that non-Western societies acquired a new, stronger and more independent role in the world system in the first decades of the twenty-first century makes the attitude of Eastern societies to the Western experience of development more rational. The long-standing idea of convergence of heterogeneous social systems is partly realized for the countries of the second and third world, while in the other group of countries, the third and fourth world, there is a tendency to reproduce the incomplete transition from the traditional to the modern state of industrial bourgeois society.

Thus, the experience of radical transformations in the XX century showed that it is possible to complete the modernization of the system, thanks to which it acquires a new quality, partly changing the configuration of the external environment. The crisis of the Western model and the search for new goals, finding new parameters and conditions for development at the beginning of the XXI century.-

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For a long time, the question of the normativity of the Western model for the East as a whole has been raised. It is more than likely that a partial modernization will be carried out, in which the system will acquire a stable transitional character, typical for the countries of the second-third world and the third-fourth. In the context of the processes of globalization and regionalization of the modern world, it is also possible for Eastern societies to search for their own new model of development, based on their own civilizational and cultural values, ideas and norms of life.

list of literature

Akimov A.V., Yakovlev A. I. Civilizatsii v XXI veke: problemy i perspektivy razvitiya [Civilizations in the XXI century: Problems and Prospects of development]. Moscow, 2012.

Lee Kuan Yew Singapore History: from the "third world" to the "first". Moscow, 2005.

Hanna P. Second World, Moscow, 2010.
Yakovlev A. I. Saudi Arabia and the West, Moscow, 1982.
Yakovlev A. I. Ocherki modernizatsii stran Vostoka i Zapada v XIX-XXVEKAKH [Essays on modernization of the countries of the East and West in the XIX-XX centuries].
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