Currently, there are conditions when the development of a complex of technically different labor-saving technologies is becoming an important factor in the socio-economic development of most countries of the world. For centuries, the growth of production has been based on the expansion of the labor force. In recent decades, there has been an international competition between the skilled but expensive labor of Western countries and the cheap but less skilled labor of developing countries. Cheaper labor is winning in many areas, but the development of labor-saving technologies is beginning to change global trends.

Labor-saving machine systems have been developed in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and services. The development of labor-saving technologies can have a positive effect on the socio-economic development of industrialized countries, as well as China, where the aging population is combined with the intensive development of robotics. For developing countries, these technologies may be threatened by a drop in demand for low-skilled labor on a global scale.

Keywords: labor-saving technologies, labor force, robotics, socio-economic development, developed countries, developing countries.

Technological development has a great influence on socio-economic processes, and there are periods when this influence is not noticeable to contemporaries, technical inventions are an internal matter of science and production. Then the accumulated changes take on such a scale that the created technical systems create a new base of productive forces that affects society as a whole. In this article, an attempt is made to substantiate the claim that at present there are conditions when a complex of various labor-saving technologies has developed to such an extent that for almost all countries of the world the consequences of this development will have one or another, positive or negative significance.

THE ROLE OF THE POPULATION IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THEORY AND HISTORY

The relationship between economic growth and population size is described by the labor theory of value, which was developed in the political economy of the XVIII-XIX centuries.1. Labor is the main factor of production, and it is for this reason that population growth has a positive effect on economic growth.

1 An analysis of this concept from a modern perspective is presented in particular in the work of A. P. Kolontaev [Kolontaev, 2001]

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The relationship between the number of employees and economic growth is perfectly valid when the economy is based on labor-intensive technologies and natural restrictions do not affect it. Examples of such development are demonstrated by most European countries and the American migrant states, both North and South, Australia and New Zealand. In all these regions, there was no acute shortage of land resources, which would have hindered the development of productive forces. In the agrarian societies of these regions, even before the industrial revolution began in the eighteenth century, labor was a limiting factor in the development of production. To a large extent, transatlantic migration from Europe to America created conditions for maintaining a high level of natural resource security and labor scarcity on both sides of the Atlantic.

It should be noted that this kind of positive relationship between economic development and population size exists only with relatively identical technological and economic systems. Even in the 18th and 19th centuries, China was the most populous country on Earth, but this did not give it any advantages in economic development. The weaker technological base of continental Europe provided Great Britain with leadership for most of the 19th century.

Since labor was a limited economic resource in European countries, scientific and technological progress was focused on labor-saving technologies. They became widespread during the development of science and technology in the XIX-XX centuries. Currently, high labor productivity has been achieved in agriculture and industry. New products can be produced without creating new jobs by developing and putting into production new machines and mechanisms that replace human labor.

Against this background, a different trend has formed. Successful catch-up development in developing countries, where economic growth leads to an improvement in the quality of the labor force), makes it competitive in a number of relatively simple and mass-produced industries, despite the fact that labor in developing countries is much cheaper than in developed ones. Therefore, the manufacturing industry and part of the service sector (creation of mathematical software, call-centers of large firms, accounting services, etc.) are moving to developing countries, since their costs are lower. Within the global economy, this leads to rapid economic growth in Asia, Latin America, and some African countries. In the coming years, according to most economists, China will overtake the United States in terms of GDP (in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), but not in terms of current exchange rates, this already happened in 2014), i.e. in terms of the scale of its economy, and then the first country in the world in terms of population will become the first in terms of its economy.

Moving jobs out of developed countries saves on labor costs, but scientific and technological progress is partially hindered, since no investment is made in creating new labor-saving technologies. The most widespread strategy in recent decades has been to move jobs to lower-wage countries.

At the same time, the role of the country's population as the most important condition for the development of the national economy remains even in the context of globalization. Its reflection is the allocation of a group of 50 x 20 countries in the modern world economy. In this designation, 20 is the minimum per capita level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of 20 thousand US dollars, and 50 is the minimum population of the country of 50 million people. Thus, a group of rich countries with a large population is distinguished. It includes the United States, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and the Republic of Korea. Korea joining '20 - 50 club']. It does not include large economies with poor populations (China, India, etc.) and small economies with poor populations.

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Countries of the Group of 50 x 20 countries have the potential for sustainable development, creating a diversified national economy based on a high-performance workforce, national intersectoral links and a large internal market.

In the context of globalization and declining population growth and even its natural decline, an important tool for maintaining leadership in developed countries, especially in countries of European culture (Western Europe, the United States and Canada, Australia and New Zealand), has become the immigration of talented and qualified specialists from developing countries - "brain drain". Immigration of this category of people is most important for the progress of science, education and the economy, and it provides economic growth in the most promising sectors. This type of immigration mitigates the negative effects of population decline on economic development.

In general, describing the relationship between the size and dynamics of the population and economic growth, it should be noted that there is a certain balance between the population and the economy that develops in the labor market. If there is no labor market (natural production), then this balance is formed at the level of rural communities. Employment in terms of scale and structure should be such as to ensure, at a minimum, the survival of the population. Production adapts to the population that exists in the country, as the labor force organizes and moves production forward. If other factors and conditions of production (natural resources, technology, business environment, government regulation) are favorable for economic development, a large population contributes to economic development.

In recent decades, a situation has developed in developed countries where the growth of jobs in agriculture and industry is minimal or negative. Under these conditions, the service sector is developing. It has areas of activity (communications, transport, medicine, education, etc.) that create services that consumers need. However, there are also activities, especially those related to trade, intermediary services and small businesses, that provide employment opportunities for those who cannot find a job in other activities.

Structural unemployment, when there are not enough high-class specialists in a number of important professions, but there is a surplus of other qualifications, often high, but unclaimed, creates long-term problems in the labor market of developed countries and sends a signal to the demographic sphere of society that the economy does not need a large increase in the labor force.

LABOR-SAVING TECHNOLOGIES IN THE SECOND DECADE OF THE XXI CENTURY

In the coming decades, the development of new technical systems that significantly increase labor productivity will become an important factor for the labor market in most countries of the world. These technical systems are largely based on information technology, but are not limited to advances in communications, computers, and the development of the Internet.2
2 A study by the Nobel Prize-winning economist M. Spence [Spence, 2013], devoted to the prospects of the world economy, considers only changes in the energy sector and the Internet as technological elements that affect economic development. This approach reflects a general underestimation of technological change, which is less covered in the media than energy and the Internet.

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Agricultural industry

In agriculture, mechanization has been developing since the 19th century. Grain cultivation is equipped with a complex of different machines for soil cultivation and harvesting. The only obstacle to the widespread use of these technologies is the abundance of cheap labor in countries with a land-saving farming system [Rastyannikov and Deryugina, 2004, chapter 5, section 2]. In crop production, only the cultivation of certain types of vegetables and fruits is still labor-intensive and poorly mechanized.

Two trends are developing in animal husbandry, both of which do not require significant labor force involvement. The first is the development of factory-type livestock complexes in pig, poultry and dairy farming. In the latter, a novelty is the robotization of milking cows. Animals are attracted to the stall, where the robot performs milking without human intervention. The second is the rearing of cattle on large ranches in the Americas and Australia. In areas of hundreds and thousands of hectares, cattle graze under the supervision of cowboys traveling on horses, jeeps and helicopters.

Extractive industries and transport

In the mining industry, scientific and technological progress has resulted in the creation of powerful machines capable of handling a significant amount of rock, ore or coal. The mine method of mining is being replaced by open-pit mining. If earlier the discovery of a large deposit of coal or ore led to the creation of a city or an entire industrial area near it, such as the Ruhr or Donbass, now a very limited number of employees serve a large deposit. An example is the port of Headland in northern Australia, built in recent years to develop the largest deposit of iron ore and export it to China. This port provides transshipment of tens of thousands of tons of ore per week, having a population of about 14 thousand people.

Labor-saving technologies of cargo handling in transport are supplemented by container transportation, which has made the profession of a loader in ports and railway stations unnecessary. Cranes and loaders provide the necessary loading and unloading operations.

Manufacturing industry

Currently, two trends are competing in the manufacturing industry. In the context of globalization, moving a number of industries to countries with cheap labor is more profitable than investing in expensive robotic equipment. The most striking examples in this area are provided by the clothing and footwear industry. So far, cheap labor is winning over automata. The clothing and footwear industry has moved from Europe and North America to Asia and Latin America, where labor is cheaper.

Entrepreneurs in developing countries are actively looking for ways to maintain their competitive advantages. One of them is the application of the network principle of business organization. Small firms that are part of the network act as subcontractors, which are so flexible in their activities that they are able not only to quickly change the product range in one product group, but also to move to almost another industry if demand changes. For example, from sewing clothes to assembling bicycles [Tsvetkova, 2012, p. 87].

In mechanical engineering, competition between people and machines is just as real. The most obvious victory of automatic machines is in welding. Welding machines are quite diverse and common in the automotive and shipbuilding industries. In the automotive industry-

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laser welding by robots is widely used, even in India, where there is no shortage of labor. In this industry, the technology is already designed only for robot welding. In shipbuilding, more sophisticated robots are needed, since welding ship hulls requires them to move along the ship's hull, but this technology speeds up the welding process many times and guarantees quality.

The competition between cheap labor and robotics is most pronounced in the production of electronics. Modern cell phones and iPads can be made by both people and machines. The Finnish company Nokia has automatic phones that install 80 thousand components per hour, despite the fact that there are about 360 elements that need to be installed in a cell phone. When Japan was emerging as a leader in electronics manufacturing in the 1960s and 1980s, there were many assembly operations that required manual soldering. Back then, cheap labor allowed Japan to become a leader in the global electronics industry. Now there is an alternative to manual labor. At the same time, iPads are made by the Chinese company Foxconn for the American order. It employs hundreds of thousands of people. It takes 325 pairs of hands to produce one iPad. The Chinese firm operates as the Japanese once did, i.e. it secures global leadership through cheap labor.

Industrial robots are the most dynamic part of the new technological order. The first industrial robot was invented in the United States in 1959. It weighed 2 tons, it was controlled by a program recorded on a magnetic drum, and it had very high accuracy when performing operations. In 1961, an industrial robot was used by General Motors for the production of automobiles. Since 1967, industrial robots have been used in Europe. Sweden was a pioneer here. In 1969, industrial robots entered the Japanese market, and already in 1971, the world's first national robotics association was formed in Japan, which laid the foundation for the country's success in creating and using robots. In 1973, 3 thousand industrial robots were operating in the world [History of Industrial Robots...], and in 2013 - already 1.6 million. [World Robotics 2014...] (See Figure 1).

Calculated by the author on: [Global robotics industry; World Robotics 2014...].

There are no reliable statistics on the number of installed and newly sold robots. The very definition of the term "robot" for various types of devices was agreed at the international level relatively recently, work on the definition was carried out in the 1990s, and some definitions were adopted only after 2010. This constrains statistical accounting. The available numerical data are estimates given by the International Federation of Robotics. Its state estimates for 2013 are presented in Table 1.

Even Africa has joined the robotization process. In 2013, more than 700 industrial robots were sold there, which is 87% more than in 2012 [Global robotics industry...].

If we consider the markets of individual countries, then the clear leader is the PRC, which occupies the first place both in terms of growth and pace. China accounts for 20% of all industrial robots installed in 2013; Japan, the United States, the Republic of Korea, and Germany account for a total of 50% [Global robotics industry...], i.e. five countries account for 70% of the world's robot fleet growth.

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Table 1

Growth in the number of industrial robots by major countries and regions in 2013

Region or country

Industrial robots purchased in 2013, thousand units.

Growth compared to 2012, %

Asia, including Australia and
New Zealand
98 807

17

including:

China

36 560

300 - production in China,
20-import

Japan
25 110

-12

Republic of Korea

21 300

10

Thailand

3200

...

Turkey

1100

...

India

1900

...

Europe

43 800

5

including:

Germany

18 300

4

Italy

4701

7

Spain

2800

38

Great Britain

2486

16

France

2200

-27

Benelux

1900

...

Sweden

1200

...

America

30 300

8

including:

USA

23 700

6

Canada

2250

29

Mexico

2739

30

Brazil

1398

-15

Compiled by the author of: [World Robotics 2014....].

The Japanese market is showing signs of saturation. Sales peaked in 2005 at 44,000 robots. The global economic crisis has greatly affected the market of all countries. Total sales in the world in 2009 fell almost twice, but in 2010 they exceeded the pre-crisis level. The decline in some countries with small industries may be due to the completion of large-scale projects that used to install robot systems, such as the construction of a car factory.

The Asian market is more than twice as large as the European one and more than three times as large as the American one. This indicates the formation of new unevenness in the development of the core and the fastest growing economies in the world economy during the formation of a new system of productive forces. It should be noted that even among developing countries, there are large unevenness in the development of this system. India lags far behind. The development of robotics in it is disproportionately small compared to its weight in the global economy.

Europe is relatively homogeneous in terms of the introduction of robotics: it is being implemented everywhere, but with a clear leader - Germany. The second place is occupied by Italy with a large margin behind the UK and France, which indicates the formation of new leaders.

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Not at a record pace, but steadily growing sales of robots in the United States. The growth here is related to the general trend of automation in industry, an attempt to increase the competitiveness of American products in the world, and to bring back to the United States jobs that were previously lost due to the transfer of production to other countries.

The growth rates of purchases and the number of robots installed in recent years are clearly outpacing the global economic growth rate. According to V. A. Melyantsev's calculations, "... we can assume, as a first approximation, that over the next decade the average annual growth rate of the global product (without adjusting for its quality) will be 3-4%... " [Melyantsev, 2013, pp. 39-40]. Thus, we are talking about a structural shift in technological development, the economy and its individual sectors.

The automotive industry is a" robot-intensive " industry. In 2010-2013, the number of robots in this industry grew by 22% annually. It mainly fell on China, Germany and the United States. In 2013, the growth rate was only 5%. In parallel with the automotive industry, mechanical engineering and metalworking also grew by 22% per year in 2010-2013, but in 2013 the growth was below the average for the period and amounted to 17%. Consumers of robots that significantly expanded purchases in 2013 are the electrical and electronic industries, as well as the food and pharmaceutical industries [Global robotics industry...].

According to the report of the International Association of Robotics, the main reasons for the development of industrial robotics are the desire for energy efficiency and the emergence of new materials, which requires the creation of new production technologies; global competition, which encourages increasing production and improving product quality; growing commodity markets, which require additional production capacity, a shorter product life cycle and an increase in the variety of which requires flexible automation; robots improve the quality of the work environment by performing dangerous, dirty, and tedious jobs that humans cannot perform efficiently. Systems for effective interaction between robots and operators are being created, which simplify their work. The problem here is safety, and measures are being taken to develop international safety standards in this area, which will further simplify the spread of robotics [Global robotics industry...].

Robotization of services

Robotics is also actively entering the service sector. The most striking examples in the banking sector are already familiar ATMs and Internet banking. Automata in exchange trading (programs that perform speculative transactions on the exchange according to the established rules) have become a significant phenomenon. They are driving out stockbrokers who were irreplaceable, and their profession was among the most prestigious and highly paid.

In medicine, robots are used for diagnostics and patient care. The robot (diagnostic program) is 95% likely to make a diagnosis based on the results of the patient's tests. Unlike a doctor, he does not get tired and has an extensive memory, which is richer than that of any human practitioner.

In the United States, as well as in Japan and the Republic of Korea, robots are used to care for patients in medical institutions. For example, in South Korea, work on the KIRO-M5 nurse robot was completed in 2013. This is a compact transport robot (height - 1 m, weight-80 kg), capable of transporting medicines, as well as other goods. It can sterilize and deodorize the air, prevent

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nurses, when bedridden patients need to change a disposable diaper. The robot wakes up patients, notifies them of the arrival of food trays, and the time of exercise. It has an emergency doctor call function. At night, the video camera allows nurses to monitor patients without making rounds. For patients who are able to move, it has handles that you can hold on to when walking [Korean engineers...].

There are robots that work with students, especially those with disabilities. These are anthropomorphic robots that look similar to humans. This type of robot can work in cafes, exhibitions, and in medicine. A hamburger vending machine has already been created.

As for medical robots, sales growth was 20% compared to 2011, and the number of robots sold increased to 1,308 units, and the share of this group of robots in the total number of professional service robots was 8%. The most common use of robots in the medical field is to participate in surgical operations and treat patients. 1,053 robots were purchased for this purpose, or 6% more than a year earlier. The value of medical robots sold increased to almost $ 1.5 billion, which is 44% of the total value of professional robots sold. Medical robots are expensive. The average cost of such a robot is approximately $ 1.5 million, including maintenance [Global robotics industry...].

In 2012, 1,376 robotic logistics systems were installed, which is 11 % higher than in 2011. Logistics systems accounted for 9% of the total sales of professional robots worth about $ 200,000. According to the International Federation of Robotics, along with medical robots, robotic logistics systems have great growth potential [Global robotics industry...].

Other areas of application for professional robots outside of production include construction, blasting and underwater operations,security and rescue. Underwater work is classified as the most expensive. The average price of an underwater robot is $ 1 million. [Global robotics industry...].

Another category is robots for individual and home use. In 2012, about 3 million units were sold. robots in this category, which is 20% more than in 2011. The value of sales exceeded $ 1.2 billion. [Global robotics industry...]. They are separated into a special category because they are simpler than professional robots, are produced for the mass market with different price levels and for different marketing channels. This group of robots includes devices for cleaning floors, mowing lawns, recreation and entertainment, including toy robots for children, as well as robots for education.

An estimated 1.96 million robots for home use were sold in 2012. According to experts of the International Federation of Robotics, this estimate is underestimated, since there are no complete statistics in this area. The number of robots sold, which is taken into account, according to the cost estimate corresponds to the level of $ 697 million. This is an increase of 53% compared to 2011 [Global robotics industry...].

THE MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBOTICS FOR THE ECONOMY AND POPULATION

The development of robotics is reaching a new level. If initially robots were considered simply as a part of industrial equipment, now they acquire the capabilities that allow them to actively displace humans from many activities. This process has several implications for the relationship between population and development.

First, an aging population in developed countries now does not mean that economic growth there will stop due to a reduction in the labor force. Stare-

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The population of this group of countries is already large - 23% of the population is over 60 years old and will only grow. The forecast for 2050 is 32% of the population over 60 years of age [World Population Prospects..., 2013]. Robots in industry and services can replace labor. The strength of developed countries is a high level of human development, which includes a qualification characteristic measured by the number of years of education. It can become the basis for economic growth and development in a declining population. The development and production of robotics requires a complex of scientific knowledge and labor skills, high labor discipline and a developed infrastructure for doing business. All this is provided only by a high-quality labor force, and this quality is closely related to the level of human development.

Secondly, as a consequence of the above, labor immigration to developed countries from developing countries ceases to be a necessary condition for their economic growth. The most interesting experience is that of Japan. This country has a very high proportion of older age groups in the population, the labor force is declining, but labor immigration is insignificant. The industry continues to develop largely due to robotization. In this sense, Japan can become an example for other developed countries.

In developing countries, the growth of the working-age population is still high, and the local labor market is not able to absorb all job seekers. Closing the labor market of developed countries will be a big problem for developing countries.

Third, productive equipment based on the use of robotics will encourage firms in developed countries to export products to the markets of developing countries, since productive equipment is quite expensive and large markets are needed for its cost-effective operation. This will create additional challenges for economic growth and social problems in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America that will not be able to integrate into the new system of productive forces.

Fourth, the growing problems of population ageing in the People's Republic of China, the largest country in terms of population, the most successful state in the group of transition economies and a potential leader in the world economy in terms of GDP in the coming decades, can be successfully solved.3 As shown above, China is already leading the way in the formation of a new system of productive forces, an important part of which is the robotization of the economy. This alleviates concerns that an aging population will cause an economic downturn in the PRC and set it back in its socio-economic development. Such a crisis would have negative global consequences.

Fifth, there is the problem of how the economy of developing countries will function when the progress of robotization makes it unnecessary for developed countries to import manufacturing products.

The export-oriented model of economic development that has been successful for many decades may not work, and developing countries will have to develop a new model of economic development without focusing on exports to developed countries based on domestic demand.4 As shown in. Popov,

3 The cost of a solution can be a significant increase in investment in creating highly productive jobs. For example, during the construction of the Chinese company China National Cereals, Oils,and Foodstuffs Imports and Export Corp. Tanjin Meat Processing Complex, a large state-of-the-art meat processing complex, has a capital intensity of more than $ 1 million per workplace. [Expert, 2014, p. 92]. This level is comparable to the capital intensity of non-ferrous metallurgy, an industry where it has always been high due to the fact that individual units are large and expensive.

4 As noted by G. K. Shirokov: "In developing countries, after achieving political independence, four processes take place in parallel: a) there is a demographic explosion, when natural population growth is much faster; b) the labor force is growing faster than the population, as dependents are pushed into the labor market, forced to look for work or because of the deterioration of the situation of the lower strata,

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"...neither development assistance nor, in a broader sense, capital inflows from abroad guarantee that economic growth will accelerate " [Popov, 2011, p. 151]. Thus, developing countries will be forced to rely on national economic opportunities. Domestic demand in an environment where the vast majority of the population is poor can only be met by increasing the role of the state in economic processes, the Keynesian model of economic regulation, and significant external assistance. The role of redistribution will increase to the detriment of market mechanisms, despite the fact that in recent decades the emphasis has been placed on them and a certain lack of experience and personnel has accumulated that can effectively manage not only financial flows, but also production and social processes at the macro level.

Sixth, it increases the likelihood of creating hotbeds of instability and failed states, in which numerous cohorts of young unemployed people will be a source of replenishment of both terrorist organizations with an ideological base and criminal gangs. The latter conclusion is a consequence of the previous one in case of unfavorable socio-economic development. Such processes are already taking place in the Middle East and Africa. The young unemployed population becomes a reserve for the formation of terrorist organizations and criminal groups. These trends can be sustained for many years.

Thus, there are many facts that point to the formation of a new system of productive forces based on labor-saving technologies and which is of great importance for the prospects of socio-economic development.

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Melyantsev V. A. Analysis of the most important trends in global economic growth, Moscow: Publishing House "Klyuch-S", 2013.

Popov V. V. Strategii ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [Strategies of Economic Development]. Moscow: HSE Publishing House, 2011.

Rastyannikov V. G., Deryugina I. V. Models of agricultural growth in the XX century. India, Japan, USA, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan. Moscow: IV RAS, 2004.

Spence M. Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a world that lives at different speeds. Gaidar Institute, 2013.

Tsvetkova N. N. New trends in globalization: TNCs and TNBS from Eastern countries // Eastern Countries: Socio-political, socio-economic, ethno-confessional and socio-cultural problems in the context of globalization. In memory of A.M. Petrov, Moscow: IV RAS, 2012.
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Expert. 2014, N 43.

Global robotics industry: Record beats Record! 2013: 179 000 industrial robots sold 2014: Continued increase expected, http://www.ifr.org/nеws/ifr-prеss-rеlcasе/global-robotics-industry-rеcord-bcats-rеcord-621/ (дата обращения: 28.10.2014).

History of Industrial Robots From the hirst Installation until Today. Milestones of Technology and Commercialization. IFR International Federation of Robotics // www.ifr.org. (accessed: 10.07.2014)

S. Korea joining '20 50 club' marks new chapter in development history: gov't http://еnglish.yonhapnеws.co.kr/national/20l2/06/23/56/0302000000AKN20120623001200320F.HTML (accessed: 29.10.2014).

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either as a result of an increase in the level of education and changes in socio-cultural stereotypes; c) urbanization accelerates sharply, primarily due to the movement of the population to large cities; d) with an increase in technical equipment and an increase in the capital intensity of modern production, its labor-absorption capabilities are relatively reduced" [Shirokov, 1998, p.180]. These processes were mitigated and even became advantages in the successful implementation of the export-oriented model of economic development.

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