According to the main modern world civilizations - European, Orthodox, Chinese, Japanese, Indian, Islamic, African and Latin American - forecast calculations of the population size, fuel and energy resources needs, and availability of agricultural land and fresh water until 2100 were carried out. Based on calculations, the main scenarios for the development of Eastern civilizations and world development scenarios are determined.

Key words: long-term forecast of world development, population size, natural resources, modern civilizations, development scenarios.

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

A.V. Akimov's article " Long-term population forecast and prospects for civilizational interaction "(Vostok (Oriens), 2009, No. 4) considered the problems of long-term growth of the world population and its provision with natural resources for life and successful catch-up development. It has been shown that the world's population can come to an equilibrium with the planet's resources as a result of a demographic transition that ultimately causes a natural population decline. In addition, it is determined that in the XXI century, a significant strain on the economy and the Earth's resource system will be required to ensure demographic transition and catch-up development.

This raises the question of how world development will proceed in the twenty-first century, what threats may arise, what conflicts will become significantly acute, and what are the prospects for world development during this transition period. The solution to this problem proposed in this article includes three components, the first of which is the calculation of the population size.

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population and natural resource needs, which should ensure economic growth that promotes socio-economic development, which can lead to a demographic transition. Related tasks here are the study of growth limits (Meadows, Randers, Meadows, 2012). The second component is the forecast for modern world civilizations. This approach makes it possible to conduct an analysis within the framework of the concept of international relations formulated by S. Huntington. It is also a convenient data aggregation layer for visualizing the impact of demographic growth on the global system. The third component is scenario analysis. It allows you to give a complete picture of the future, to summarize the conclusions obtained in the forecast calculations.

It should be noted that a forecast is not a prediction of what will happen, but an analysis of what may happen. Such an analysis should help to develop a strategy that avoids the development of undesirable options and identifies ways to achieve the desired states.

The definition of "civilization" is not simple. For example, A. Toynbee, an English historian who can be attributed along with O. Spengler to the founders of the scientific direction in history, which studies it as the development of civilizations, in his main work "Comprehension of History", instead of a general definition of the concept on 24 pages, briefly describes 21 societies, among which are modern (Western, Orthodox, Chinese, etc.). both ancient and extinct societies (Babylonian, Sumerian, etc.), and then declares that "societies of this kind are usually called 'civilizations' "(Toynbee, 1991, p. 80).

If we simplify the approach of historians to civilizations to an applied level that provides useful interpretations of real facts, then the main features of the civilizational concept are two. The first is the recognition that " ... culture and various types of cultural identification (which at the broadest level are the identification of civilization) determine models of cohesion, disintegration and conflict "[Huntington, 2003, p. 15]. Second, the life cycle of a civilization goes from birth to growth, flourishing, and then to decay. Thus, almost all arguments in the framework of the civilizational concept are qualitative in nature, and the definitions are not precise, but this concept describes very important aspects of society, including conflicts and long-term development trends.

Using the list of civilizations proposed by S. Huntington for the analysis of modern international relations, we will consider the world development in the XXI century. for the following civilizations:

- Western European: European countries (excluding Albania, Bosnia and Orthodox countries), USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand;

- Orthodox: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro, Greece;

- Chinese: PRC;

- Japanese: Japan;

- Indian: India;

- Islamic: Arab countries, Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Albania, Bosnia;

- African: Sub-Saharan Africa;

- Latin American: Latin American countries.

Those countries that are not included in the listed groups by their religious or cultural affiliation were not included in the list of civilizations: Israel, Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, Thailand, and Oceania countries.

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POPULATION GROWTH AND ITS NEEDS FOR NATURAL RESOURCES

The dynamics of changes in the population size of civilizations in the XXI century is reduced to the following 1 (see Figure 1). Orthodox and Japanese civilizations, which have much smaller populations than all other civilizations, are experiencing depopulation. European and Latin American civilizations have a population significantly higher than that of the Orthodox and Japanese civilizations, but it is not as large as the number of other civilizations. In the first decades of the twenty-first century, the population of the Latin American civilization grows to the level of the European one, then the population growth stops and both of these civilizations will have approximately the same population. The Chinese civilization is projected to rapidly stop population growth and move to natural population decline, while maintaining a high population level. Indian, Islamic and African civilizations have very significant demographic growth potential. This potential, which is associated with an insufficient level of socio-economic development, may not be realized for two reasons. One is favorable - acceleration of economic development. The second is an unfavorable environmental disaster.

The real scenario considered in this article as the main one is a variant that expands the standard set of maximum, average, and minimum scenarios used in demographic forecasting.

Figure 1. Populations of civilizations. Real-world scenario

1 Bcc calculations were performed by the author. The methodology is described in the following books: [Akimov, 1992; Akimov, 2008; Akimov and Yakovlev, 2012].

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Figure 2. The need for fuel and energy resources. Real-world demographic forecast scenario

The introduction is due to the fact that the middle option leads to an unrealistically high population density in South Asia. The real scenario is the average trajectory between the average and minimum scenarios.

The world as a whole is experiencing successful catch-up development in demographic and social spheres, and the quality indicators of the population of currently developing countries and countries with economies in transition are approaching those of currently developed countries. Under these conditions, the population size becomes an important indicator of economic potential.

At the same time, the aging of the world population as a result of the global demographic transition may significantly change the economy, everyday life, and political processes in the second half of the 21st century, slowing down the pace of innovation, but it will be a natural consequence of the success of catching-up development.

Uneven and even multidirectional demographic changes in different countries and regions will create a significant potential for cross-border demographic pressure and international migration. Relations between civilizations with intensive contacts and joint life of representatives of different civilizations on the same territory can have both a positive effect in the form of convergence of civilizations, and a negative effect for European civilization up to its dissolution in the environment of more numerous newcomers.

Population growth combined with successful catch-up development implies an increase in fuel and energy needs. The dynamics of growth in the demand for fuel and energy resources (FER) across civilizations is as follows. According to the real scenario, in the first half of the XXI century, the European civilization remains in the first place in terms of fuel and energy consumption, but by the middle of the century it is being overtaken by the Chinese one. From the 2070s to the 2080s, competition for fuel and energy sources will flare up between the European, Chinese, and foreign countries.-

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Indian and Islamic civilizations. In the 2090s, the African civilization joins them (see Figure 2).

The growth of demand for fuel and energy resources due to the faster socio-economic development of South Asian countries is faster, and in the 2060s, Indian and Islamic (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan) civilizations will reach the level of consumption of European and Chinese. This acceleration in demand growth is the price of faster socio-economic development, which in turn reduces population growth.

According to the results of socio-economic development in the XXI century, the Chinese civilization is on a par with the European one in terms of fuel and energy needs, but the Indian, Islamic and African civilizations compete with them. Failure of this strategy may lead to the fact that such an increase in needs will not occur, but this will lead to the collapse of the current global development strategy and the continuation of economic backwardness, which may lead to a slowdown in the demographic transition, which means more population growth and exacerbation of the same problems of life support and postponing catch-up development to a later date.

The geological resources of the most valuable fossil fuels - oil and natural gas - are very unevenly distributed among civilizations. If in addition to the Islamic civilization, the Orthodox one, represented by Russia, also has natural gas resources, then the Islamic One is almost a monopolist in terms of oil reserves. Thus, only international trade can provide most countries with the necessary motor fuel.

There are two main groups of civilizations that can be distinguished by the combination of per capita availability of arable land and fresh water - the two main factors of farming. The first group is provided by both factors of agricultural production. These are European and Orthodox, as well as Latin American civilizations. They have the necessary combination of land and water to develop agriculture.

The second group has a deficit of either one of the natural components (land or water), or both. These are Chinese, Indian and Islamic, African and Japanese civilizations. Taking into account the population size of the second group of civilizations, it can be argued that the problems of food supply will be very acute in the XXI century (see Figures 3-4).
The results of the population/resources ratio assessment are as follows: in the coming decades, the world's population needs for natural resources will sharply increase in order to ensure catch-up development, since the current global strategy is technologically based on resource-wasteful production and consumption models rooted in the West, and the key natural resources that ensure industrial development (mineral fuels) will only be able to with significant technological progress and economic efficiency.

The second half of the twenty-first century will be a critical period in human development. At this time, the question of whether a demographic transition will take place in the major developing countries of Asia and Africa, and whether the resources of the Earth will be sufficient to ensure economic growth in the world sufficient for the demographic transition.

If by the end of the twenty-first century the provision of demographic development with resources is ensured, then humanity as a whole will complete the demographic transition, and the subsequent natural decline of the aged population of the planet will gradually remove the urgency of resource supply.

The problem of acute resource scarcity with rapid population growth (Malthusian-type development crisis) is not global, but is localized in South Asia and Africa.

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Figure 3. Arable land per capita. Real-world scenario

Sub-Saharan Africa. Without the help of the international community, these regions may find themselves in a state of acute crisis with a catastrophic increase in deaths and masses of refugees.

LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS FOR EASTERN COUNTRIES

For long-term forecasting of socio-economic development, it is necessary to combine both quantitative methods that provide estimates of the most important variables of the world system for the future, and qualitative methods that allow us to outline a holistic picture of development prospects. The scenarios discussed below are a generalization of the above forecast calculations of population dynamics and resources needed to ensure demographic growth and development.

In parallel with the growing problems of resource support for economic growth, successful catch-up development that equalizes the standard of living and human potential in developed and developing countries is becoming an important component of global dynamics. At the same time, during the demographic transition, developed countries are beginning to experience a natural decline in population as a result of population aging. In many developing countries, demographic growth continues, the population of these countries is growing, and its qualitative characteristics are approaching the level of developed countries.

In the context of successful catch-up development and globalization of various aspects of society, the question of self-identification and values of societies in different countries becomes important. Socio-economic development in modern conditions does not necessarily mean Westernization. Preservation of cultural and civilizational heritage

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Figure 4. Availability of water resources. Real-world demographic forecast scenario

The uniqueness of different countries and peoples in the context of successful catch-up development and resource scarcity creates both opportunities for cooperation between different cultures and civilizations, and due to the numerical superiority of non-European civilizations and cultures, they are gaining more and more weight in the world system, and the likelihood of confrontation and struggle for the dwindling resources of countries that unite on the basis of cultural and civilizational community.

So, based on the different rates of population growth, the need for natural resources, the alignment of levels of development and human potential while preserving cultural and civilizational diversity, scenarios are identified for all the civilizations discussed above. Some of them are applicable to civilizations outside the East, while others are specific to major countries and groups of Eastern countries. These scenarios are discussed below 2.

The first scenario - "Convergence of Civilizations" - represents the most favorable path of development, a conflict-free option possible with purposeful management of the world system. This option is present as a possible option for all countries and groups of countries under consideration.

"Convergence of Civilizations". As a result of intensive international communication, joint activities in the global economy, the success of catching up with the development of countries that are now called developing countries, changes in the mentality of equalizing consumption levels in different countries, carriers of all civilizations are coming together in the cultural sphere so much that any joint activity has no civilizational restrictions, people are completely "used" to each other, and there is no antagonism between the bearers of different civilizational values. Cultural events

2 Scenarios are described in detail in Akimov and Yakovlev, 2012, chapter 3.

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the special features will remain, but they will not be the cause of hostility or hindrance to joint activities.

There is quite convincing evidence that this development is possible not only from the material culture, which demonstrates the unification of consumption due to the fact that the modern way of life in the city involves the use of the same household appliances and life support technologies, and the globalization and standardization of jobs in the modern sector, but also from the spiritual side. A study initiated by the Association of American Psychologists and its chairman, M. Seligman, showed that the most diverse peoples of the world have a common set of virtues [Seligman, 2006, p.178].

In order to implement this scenario, a large number of different socio-economic, socio-legal and cultural issues need to be resolved. In addition to problems, there may also be some breakthroughs along this path, for example, in the case of successfully solving problems related to the creation of automated linguistic translation systems, which can significantly facilitate communication between native speakers of different languages without the need to learn foreign languages. National identity is preserved, but communication with people of a different language culture is not hindered in any way.

The "Triumph of Technology"scenario is singled out for scientifically and technologically advanced civilizations. It describes the part of technological and scientific changes that are essential for predicting variables related to demographic indicators.

"The Triumph of technology". The development of biology and applied biotechnologies leads to the general practice of increasing life expectancy and mass active longevity in developed countries. At the same time, there is a revolutionary development of technologies related to the creation of artificial intelligence and manipulators, which make it possible to create technologies that do not use labor in the extractive and manufacturing industries, in the service sector. Mass cheap labor is practically not needed. Population decline is not perceived as a problem, the problem is "extra people".

The prospects for implementing such a scenario are based on the research of biologists and biochemists, in particular, the Russian researcher Academician V. P. Skulachev, which indicates not only the existence of biological mechanisms that allow some animal species to live very long and actively, but also the possibility of biochemical effects on the human body to block the biological mechanism of aging ("old age is a disease, need to be treated").

In fact, Japan has been an experimental platform for testing this development strategy in recent years. The country is practically closed to migration, and it solves the problems of labor shortage by successfully developing robotics. The average life expectancy there is one of the highest in the world.

It is likely that Western society and Japan will move closer to these goals through the efforts of their scientists. Questions remain open about the willingness to work for a long time and the degree of efficiency of new centenarians, their relations with other members of society. In fact, this will be a revival of the aristocracy (gerontocracy) layer, which naturally claims to be the dominant one, and this can cause ambiguous political and social consequences.

An extrapolation of the current type of development of economically developed countries is the "Rentier Triumph" scenario.

"Celebration of the rentier". According to this scenario, manufacturing companies will continue to leave Western European countries, the United States and Japan, but they will retain their positions of scientific, technical and financial leadership in the world.-

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howling economy. This means reducing the threat of labor shortages, and the problem of labor takes on only one meaning: attracting highly educated and most gifted people from other countries. To the rest of the world, the West and Japan provide their financial and intellectual capital, receiving income (rent) for this. Non-Western countries that do not have the capacity to develop high technologies import them and copy them at home, paying for the receipt of these and financial resources from the West and Japan.

At the same time, there is another side of this development model that can form the described scenario. As V. A. Melyantsev emphasizes: "In developed countries, an impressive "creative class" has been created, the size of which can be estimated by such an indicator as the number of researchers per million inhabitants. If in the average developed countries in 2000-2005 it did not exceed 700-800 people (including in China - 708, Brazil - 462, Mexico - 321), then in developed countries it was at least five times more (in Germany-3242, USA-4605, Japan-5294, Sweden-5977). The share of skilled workers in the number of employees on average in the EU countries is approaching 3/5, and in the USA it has already exceeded 3/4" [Melyantsev, 2009, p. 3]. If the currently economically developed countries retain their leadership in research and development, then moving the world's workshops to the East will not deprive them of leadership due to the technological excellence and novelty of their products. At least at present, no other civilization threatens the leadership of European civilization as a whole in spending on research and development.

For Japan, the scenarios listed above coincide with those typical of European civilization, but the options listed below are those that are highlighted specifically for Japanese conditions:

"Souring". This scenario is possible based on obvious demographic changes: an aging population and a weakening of creative potential, deprived of feeding by immigrants. There is still a high level of economic and technological development, a high level and quality of life, but all this is happening by inertia, the country and society are living on old achievements. Industrial potential is weakening. Businesses and financial institutions are moving to other countries. The main principle is to maintain the existing situation.

"Meiji-2 Restoration". Opening the country to immigration, which will ensure that leadership is maintained on a new basis. Such a discovery could mean greater ties with China. Regional cooperation with a similar culture can become a prerequisite for a secondary role in the alliance with China.

"China's junior partner". A variant of " Meiji-2 Restoration "or" Souring", in which Japan is integrated in the first case as a stronger and more active partner, and in the second case as a weaker partner of a successfully developing China.

A diagram of the scenarios and possible transitions between them are shown in Figure 5.

China:

"Environmental disaster". Experts analyzing the situation in China point to this danger as the most serious for the future development of the country. The main factors that determine this danger are the very large population, especially rural ones, even after three decades of successful demographic policies, and the resource-intensive nature of economic growth. China's economic losses from ecological imbalance and environmental pollution are estimated at 10-20% of GDP, with about 2/3 of losses from ecological imbalance and 1/3 from environmental pollution [Ushakov, 2008, p. 37]. Thus, we can assume that 2/3 of the losses are related to excessive environmental stress in rural areas due to overpopulation, and the rest are related to modern industrial production. In general, air and water pollution determine the severity of the environmental problem.

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Figure 5. Diagram of possible transitions between Japan's development scenarios

The situation with the destruction of the natural environment in overpopulated rural areas is most fraught with a crisis, since the ecological crisis in this case develops into a social one. With regard to water and air pollution, a similar situation occurred in Japan, Germany and the United States during the stages of intensive industrial growth. Technological solutions are available to overcome these problems, but they require large economic costs and State policies to introduce environmentally friendly technologies.

"Rapid population aging and extinction in the Japanese version". One of the most important factors for the success of Chinese reforms and the rapid economic growth that resulted from them was the demographic policy aimed at reducing the birth rate in the country. Its undoubted success has a downside - the aging of the population, i.e. an increase in the proportion of older people in the country's population. It is estimated that by 2050, about 30% of China's population will be over 60 years of age (World Population Aging 1950-2050, 2002). Currently, in Japan , the country with the oldest population structure, which faces large problems of providing pensions for citizens and the need to transfer industrial production to other countries due to a shortage of young labor, the share of people over 60 is 23%. By 2050, this figure in the United States will reach 27%, i.e. the population of China will be older than the population of the United States.

It is obvious that China may lose its competitive advantage as a country with a sufficiently skilled but cheap labor force. It will be difficult to maintain the position of the "workshop of peace" with an aging population that will need social security, which will detach funds from economic development. China will become similar to modern Japan in its achievements and challenges, but with a much lower GDP per capita.

"The struggle for leadership in the world". As the authors of the US National Intelligence Council report "Global Trends 2025: a Changing World" emphasize, "China has the prerequisites to exert more influence on the world in the next twenty years than any other country. If current trends do not change, by 2025 China's economy will become the second largest in the world, and it will become the leading military force" [World after the Crisis..., 2009, p. 13]. According to various estimates, China can

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Figure 6. Possible scenarios for China's development

become the world's first largest economy in the first half of the 21st century. It is important to note that the Chinese economy will lead not only in terms of volumes, although here its gap from others is already impressive. For example, China ranks first in the world in steel production by a huge margin from other countries: 568 million tons in 2009, Japan-88 million tons, the United States-58 million tons, Russia-60 million tons 3. A similar situation occurs in the energy sector, other branches of metallurgy, and mechanical engineering. Since 2004, China has been the world's largest exporter of digital technology products, ahead of Japan, the EU, and the United States [Industrial policy of China..., 2006, p. 50]. In terms of the absolute number of Internet users, China ranks first in the world (over 250 million people) [Damm, 2009, p. 28].

Of course, the PRC will have to overcome many obstacles on the way to economic leadership, including technological, social, economic, and environmental problems within the country, as well as the difficulties of establishing itself as the world's largest power in the system of international economic relations. Nevertheless, there is evidence that the US is already ready to accept China in this new role. Expert and political circles in the United States are discussing the concept of "G-2" (a mechanism for informal agreements between the United States and China) [Bergsten, Freeman, Lardy, Mitchell, 2008, p. 25-27], which should essentially replace the "G-7" and "G-8" (USA, Canada, Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy, Japan, and Russia). The relationships between the scenarios are shown in Figure 6.

"Ecological and demographic catastrophe". India. A large population, especially in rural areas, and limited economic resources that are insufficient to implement large-scale economic modernization programs in general and agriculture in particular, create conditions for a large-scale environmental crisis, as agricultural overpopulation has been growing in India for many decades, which leads to the destruction of the natural environment in the village. According to V. G. Rastiannikov, " modern India is experiencing an acute crisis, despite the dizzying success of economic growth in recent decades. The wormhole of this crisis, called "pressure of population on land", was very painfully felt by the peasants of India back in the 30s of the XX century, by the beginning of the XXI century. it has grown into a huge cancer. This crisis is permanent. Its cause is not of market-related origin, nor is it a particular phenomenon

3 World Steel Association data, website worldstccl.org. In 2009, output in China grew, while in other countries it significantly decreased during the crisis.

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The decline of the economic cycle is a crisis of the very fundamental foundations of agricultural production, historically the main sphere of economic activity of the peoples of India. The root cause of this crisis is excessively intensive population growth that does not correspond to the mass of available natural resources" [Rastyannikov, 2010, p.9]. The state of modern agriculture in India is characterized by the fact that the production of food grains per capita at the beginning of the XXI century. lower than at the end of the 19th century. [Rastyannikov, 2010, p. 95].

According to A.M. Goryacheva, " the country is already burdened with such a large number of "surplus", poor, illiterate and sick people ("biomass", in the words of one Indian sociologist) that it cannot be included in the modern economic process (inclusive growth). The country's leadership is aware that even the rate of economic growth of 8-10% per year cannot solve the problem radically " [Goryacheva, 2010, p. 109].

Thus, the probability of a crisis scenario in India is high.

"Successful catch-up development and struggle for leadership in the world".

The creators of the abbreviation BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), which denotes countries with great potential for development in the XXI century, from the international consulting firm Goldman Sachs believe that with successful development by 2050, the Indian economy may exceed the US economy in scale. To do this, according to experts from Goldman Sachs, India needs to solve ten main tasks, the solution of which will significantly accelerate the pace of socio-economic development and by 2050 achieve a high status in the world community. These objectives are formulated as follows: improving public administration, developing the general education system, increasing the number and quality of universities, controlling inflation, implementing a credible monetary policy, liberalizing the financial market, increasing trade with neighboring countries, increasing agricultural productivity, improving infrastructure, and improving the quality of the environment [O'Neill, Poddar, 2008]. It seems that the solution of these tasks is quite likely, so that India will be able to realize its potential of catching up development.

The growth of India's role in the world in the coming decades is no longer in doubt, and this prospect is widely discussed: "Over the next 15-20 years, Indian leaders will struggle for a multipolar international system in which New Delhi becomes one of these poles, as well as a political and cultural bridge between a rising China and the United States. India's increasingly assertive behavior in the international arena, fueled mainly by economic growth and successful democratic development, is pushing the country to partner with many States. However, this partnership is aimed at maximizing India's independence, and not at an alliance with any country or coalitions of countries" (Mir posle krizisa..., 2009, p. 74) (see Figure 7).
In the group of Islamic states, we have identified the largest parts, for which the outlines of development scenarios are outlined:

- Arab oil exporting countries:

"Energy forever". According to this scenario, the Arab oil exporting countries develop solar energy after developing oil and gas fields.

"Return to the desert". Alternative development option after depletion of oil and gas fields. Due to a significant drop in state revenues, as well as difficulties in creating competitive non-oil industries, there is a process of simplifying the structure of the economy, the most dangerous of which are the acute crisis of water resources and food supply.

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Figure 7. Possible development scenarios for India

- Arab countries that are not major oil exporters:

"Mediterranean integration". It is based on the trend of developing the economic integration of the Arab countries of the Mediterranean and the EU countries into a system of close economic cooperation and interaction.

"Arab Street". In the context of the inevitable reduction of natural resources and increasing contradictions between the level of economic and political development in all Arab countries, a socio-political conflict is emerging. This scenario became apparent in reality in the winter and spring of 2011.

- Turkey, Malaysia. Iran. Indonesia:

"Islamic Tigers". The scenario provides for relatively stable socio-economic development of these countries. The existing development trends, taking into account the considerable natural and human potential, suggest a further consolidation of the role and influence of these countries in the world economy and world politics.

- Pakistan. Afghanistan. Bangladesh:

"Prozyabanie".This is a very likely scenario for the development of the situation in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Despite all the significant differences between these countries in geographical and socio-economic indicators, they are united by one sign: a growing crisis on a national scale, accumulating demographic and social difficulties, economic difficulties and political conflicts.

African civilization:

"Failure of catch-up development". Economic backwardness, territorial fragmentation, political instability, corruption, and the AIDS epidemic, which devastates the health system and undermines productive forces due to the fact that a significant part of the working-age population cannot work due to the high prevalence of AIDS and related diseases, do not allow the formation of mechanisms for stable economic growth and social development.

The economic assistance of developed countries is not sufficient to give an impetus to development. Corruption and political instability reduce the effectiveness of this aid and the willingness of developed countries to provide it. Developed countries, newly industrialized countries and countries with economies in transition import African mining and agricultural products, but foreign investment in African countries is not sufficient to create conditions for widespread and sustainable economic growth in this group of countries.

"Catch-up development and partnership with Latin American civilization". As an external development factor and the largest foreign partner, you are-

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Figure 8. Possible scenarios for the development of African civilization

Latin America is coming. Large companies and states in this region are actively investing in African countries, stimulating the development of local production. A certain racial and cultural community of these civilizations facilitates and even encourages cooperation, provides the basis for a certain common identity and the opposition of this identity to other civilizations.

"Catch-up development with a multi-vector orientation". This scenario is a willingness to follow the European, Latin American or even Chinese civilization, if it is economically rational. This option is pragmatic. China plays a significant role in it, as it is already a major investor in the African economy. These investments are directed to the extractive industry and infrastructure.

China may be followed by India, which can rely on Indians living in African countries since the days of the British Empire. The spread of Islam in African countries creates concrete ways for investment in capital-rich Arab countries. The traditional significant influence of European countries, as well as the United States and Canada, creates the potential for European civilization's impact, both economically and culturally, on this region.

SCENARIOS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN CIVILIZATIONS

The scenarios described above can be combined into consistent combinations that describe the variety of development options and show the complexity of the analyzed world model, but then the state space will be too large for perception and initial analysis. For this reason, it is more rational to identify fundamentally possible options for the interaction of world civilizations (groups of countries), the elements of which are the scenarios described above:

1. "Convergence of Civilizations".

2. " The West retains leadership."

3. " Leadership moves East and South."

4. "Fight for resources".

These four options may develop in different ways, but they cover the most important aspects of the future that need to be explored. The second and third scenarios essentially reflect two possibilities for the inertial development of mi-

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different economies with different outcomes. They do not imply fundamental changes in the relations between civilizations, and they do not require any special measures of supranational governance for their implementation.

"Convergence of Civilizations". The task is to identify ways to achieve this state. This is necessary because it is unlikely that such a system will develop on its own.

Transnational corporations, which are the engine of globalization, can ensure economic convergence of countries, leveling both the sphere of production and the sphere of consumption. However, their ability to erase civilizational differences is small, as shown by the examples of the Persian Gulf countries, which have the ability to import all modern goods due to oil exports, and the countries of East Asia, where the development of modern production has not led to Westernization of society.

"The West retains leadership." This is the preservation of the current state of affairs for the entire XXI century. This development option is not even questioned by a considerable number of experts. Nevertheless, it is clear that the continuation of current development trends for the entire XXI century is possible only if the West (the EU, USA and Japan) overcomes the current problems in its economic development.

"Leadership shifts to the East and South." Under such a scenario, China and / or India will become the leaders of the global development process, which, due to a combination of certain circumstances and thanks to the skillful policy of their authorities, will be able to seize leadership from the West, as well as ensure the sustainable development of their countries.

The relative weakening of the West, of course, does not mean an absolute diminution of its role and importance in the economic, military-political and cultural life of the world. The West will have to adapt to the role of a partner in relations with the non-Western community in the world system and within the national borders of its countries.

"Fight for resources". Within the global system, with the current dominant model of "consumer economy" development, countries, regional groups, and TNCs are unable to maintain a balance between the growing needs of people and declining, non-renewable, and limited renewable natural resources.

Maintaining differences in the interests of civilizations and countries can lead to a long, protracted chaos of the world system. A way out of this process can provide either the emergence of an absolute leader who creates the foundations of a new world order by violent methods,or common rules of interaction agreed by leading countries. It is necessary to determine under what conditions such a development of events becomes possible, where this struggle is localized, or whether it will take on a global character.

The four development options listed above summarize the ways of developing intercivilizational interaction in general in global conditions.

The forecast presented in this article points to the formation of conflict zones and spheres within civilizations and in their interaction with each other in the XXI century. It is obvious that mechanisms are needed to adapt the world system to new conditions in order to prevent crisis phenomena. Over the past three centuries, reforms aimed at modernizing society have been a powerful tool for managing social development. It is this tool that is considered in the article by A. I. Yakovlev as a means of managing world development in the XXI century.

list of literature

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